Navigant Research forecasts that vehicles with autonomous driving modes will gradually gain traction in the market over the coming two decades, from about 4% of the global light-duty vehicle market in 2025, rising to roughly 41% in 2030 and 75% by 2035—about 95.4 million units annually by then.
Basically it will be like a more regulated version of the transition from dumb feature phones to smartphones. This transition has taken about two decades. This is counting the time from the mid-1990s with the first Palm and Nokia smartphones and then the blackberry. The huge success of the iPhone in 2007 followed by the Android. The cost to transition to self driving cars will be made faster more affordable with cameras and electronics that only cost a few hundred dollars or even $100-150. The Oxford Mobile Robotics Group (MRG team) sees an immediate future in production cars modified for autonomous driving only part of the time on frequently driven routes. They estimate that the cost of the system can be brought down from its current £5,000 ($7700) to only £100 (US$155).
The advent of more accurate global positioning system (GPS) navigation, as well as onboard sensors and the associated advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) have provided the technology foundation for more autonomous driving.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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