1. Reconciliation between the military and the Muslim Brotherhood (I do not think this is possible)
2. Military Rule.
3. Civil War
2 and 3 and really one scenario of all out fighting and suppression until there is uncontested military rule.
In power, Mursi and his backers in the Brotherhood proved unable to collaborate with either Islamist allies or secular adversaries and fatally alienated an army they first tried to co-opt.
“The Brotherhood have committed political suicide. It will take them decades to recover … because a significant number of Egyptians now mistrust them. Al-Ikhwan is a toxic brand now in Egypt and the region,” said academic Fawaz Gerges, adding that the damage goes beyond Egypt to its affiliates in Tunisia, Jordan and Gaza, where the ruling Hamas evolved from the Brotherhood.
Deposed President Mohamed Mursi alienated all but a hard-core constituency by devoting his energy to seizing control of Egypt’s institutions rather than implementing policies to revive its paralysed economy and heal political divisions, analysts say.
“I was surprised by the rapid fall of the Islamists,” said Jamel Arfaoui, an analyst on Tunisia, the birthplace of the Arab Spring uprisings.
Saudi money is being given to the Egyptian military and advice to merciless crush the Brotherhood. Their advice will likely be adopted, both because the junta knows that death awaits them if they lose (2 Egyptian major generals and 2 brigadier generals, along with many colonels, have been assassinated by the Brothers in the current spasm), and because only the Saudis can foot the huge bill facing Egypt just to provide the basics for the people. Most of whom, to the evident surprise of Western leaders and journalists, seem inclined to support the junta (neighborhood militias have taken on the Brothers throughout the country, for example).
The Islamic Saudi Wahhabis are supporting a military junta whose leader is famously Islamist against the infamously Islamist Muslim Brotherhood. Yes, they may well all yearn for the destruction of the infidel West (although the junta impiously pockets our dollars), but for the moment the struggle for power trumps the power of the faith.
Notice that this bloody confrontation has nothing to do with the celebrated Sunni-Shi’ite war.
It is a fight to the death for power.
US president Barack Obama announced that the US was pulling out of a joint military exercise with Egypt scheduled for next month, but made no mention of changes to the $1.3bn in annual aid for the Egyptian military.
“While we want to sustain our relationship with Egypt, our traditional cooperation cannot continue as usual when civilians are being killed in the streets and rights are being rolled back,” he said.
The split underscores growing policy differences between the US and many of its longtime allies in the Gulf, not just in Egypt but around the region.
It also helps to explain why Egypt’s leaders ignored the American government and moved brutally to clear two pro-Morsi sit-ins last week.
For now, at least, the Gulf countries – with the exception of Qatar – are perceived as more reliable allies.
In the days after Morsi’s removal, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE pledged $12 billion in aid. But the interim government in Cairo could be taking a gamble by risking its aid from America, which analysts believe makes up 20 percent of the military’s budget.
Aid from Washington has been a constant for three decades, while the recent flood of Gulf money may be shorter-lived.
Activists in Saudi Arabia say the government has cracked down on Brotherhood supporters since Morsi’s removal.
Sixty-one members of a Brotherhood-affiliated group were jailed last month in the UAE.
The one outlier is Qatar, the main backer of political Islamists in Egypt and across the region for the past two-and-a-half years.
In early 2011, Saudis expressed bitterness at the U.S. urging then-Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, a longtime ally of Saudi Arabia and the U.S., to cede to popular demands to surrender power.
The Saudis have pledged well over $10 billion to prop up favored Arab governments post-Arab Spring.
Saudi Arabia’s conservative, security-focused views for the Arab world are now on the ascent.
Saudi Arabia is backing the authoritarian rulers and forces who are not threats to Saudi Arabia’s leaders.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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