Windows Phone will solidify its position as the number three O.S. with incremental share gains over the course of the forecast. With the acquisition of Nokia’s device and services unit, Microsoft will increasingly need to drive share gains by itself as OEM support for Windows Phone is expected to wane now that the company is set to become a full-fledged hardware maker. Microsoft will also need to ship more low-cost smartphones to high-growth emerging markets if it is to continue building on its recent nominal share increases.
The worldwide mobile phone market is forecast to grow 7.3% year over year in 2013, marking a sharp rebound from the nearly flat (1.2%) growth experienced in 2012. Strong demand for smartphones across all geographies will drive much of this growth as worldwide smartphone shipments are expected to surpass 1 billion units for the first time in a single year.
Vendors are now forecast to ship more than 1.8 billion mobile phones this year, growing to over 2.3 billion mobile phones in 2017.
Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 40.0% year over year to more than 1.0 billion units this year. High smartphone growth is the result of a variety of factors, including steep device subsidies from carriers, especially in mature economic markets, as well as a growing array of sub-$200 smartphones. Total smartphone shipments are forecast to reach 1.7 billion units in 2017.
The IDC prediction is that Microsoft will be able to turn around Nokia and achieve 175 million smartphone sales (Nokia and any OEMSs that they keep) in 2017. They are predicting that Microsoft will be able to win large market share in India, the rest of Asia and Africa where a lot of the growth in smartphones will be happening.
Apple is finally moving to launch a lower priced iPhone with the iPhone 5C. They are also making a deal with China Mobile.
For Microsoft to get that much marketshare they have to come out with sub-$100 (unsubsidized) smartphone to fight for market share with the the low cost Chinese Android smartphones.
There have been rumors that Lenovo would buyout Blackberry. It seems likely that some kind of buyout of Blackberry will happen within 1-2 years.