Agricultural outlook to 2022

OECD-FAO agricultural outlook from 2013 to 2022. h. Global agricultural production for commodities covered in this Outlook is projected to grow at 1.5% annually, on average, compared to 2.1% in the previous decade. This slower growth is expected to be exhibited by all crop sectors and livestock production. These trends reflect rising costs, growing resource constraints, and increasing environmental pressures, which are anticipated to inhibit supply response in virtually all regions.

World population will grow by 1% per year but food from agriculture will increase by 1.5% per year.

Ethanol production is expected to increase 67% over the next ten years with biodiesel increasing even faster but from a smaller base. By 2022, biofuel production is projected to consume a significant amount of the total world production of sugar cane (28%), vegetable oils (15%) and coarse grains (12%).

* Developing countries are expected to account for 80% of the growth in global meat production. Per capita meat consumption growth will slow as major developing economies approach the levels of developed countries; while poultry remains the least expensive and most popular choice and accounts for around 50% of the increase in meat consumption.

Capture fisheries’ output is projected to rise by only 5% by 2022 with aquaculture increasing by 35%, despite a slowing growth rate due to higher feed costs and more limited availability of production locations. Aquaculture is projected to surpass capture fisheries as the main source for human consumption by 2015.

China should maintain its leading role in global fisheries as its aquaculture production continues to increase, albeit at half the rate of the previous decade. China is expected to account for 63% of global aquaculture production in 2022 and remain the world’s leading fish exporter.

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