According to two Citigroup economists, Nathan Sheets and Robert A. Sockin, China’s “deteriorating demographics” are likely to trim 3.25 percentage points off China’s annual growth rate between 2012 and 2030, compared to its double-digit growth of past decades.
They estimate China’s growth ceiling over the coming two decades is 6.9% annually, “and to the extent that urbanization, industrialization and convergence dynamics play through (as is likely) actual growth will be substantially lower.”
There are measures China could take to ease the problem, the economists say: Have people work longer and use more automation.
China will also be lifting the one child policy over the next few years.
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