Weird speculation about China’s future from two Hong Kong sources

Russia’s Pravda commented on two weird publications that came out of Hong Kong.

The article in Frontline (Hong Kong english language political news) categorically stated that the Chinese Communist Party would collapse in three phases over the next three years, and its reign would end in 2016. First, in 2014 China’s economy will fall, and in the next year the political structure of the Communist Party will be destroyed. Then, in 2016, the entire society will collapse, and the half-billion-strong country will fall into a political coma.

The reasons for the collapse are economical and associated with a significant outflow of capital from China. This deadly process, according to a US expert, Professor Tian from a provincial University of South Carolina, will be exacerbated by the real estate market “bubbles,” shadow banking system and huge debts of municipalities. This sounds exactly like the situation in the United States in 2008-2013.

There are lot of political sources in Hong Kong that are anti-mainland. The Epoch Times is backed by the Falun Gong. I do not know the background of Frontline in Hong Kong. There is also a lot of tabloid and sensationalist medua in Hong Kong. It would be very difficult to be so precise and certain of a Soviet Union style collapse before the fact. I also do not see the issues and causes as described being that serious or being able to act in such a fast timeframe.

On July 8, 2013, the pro-PRC Chinese-language newspaper, Wenweipo, published an article titled (Six Wars China Is Sure to Fight In the Next 50 Years)”.

The anticipated six wars are all irredentist in purpose — the reclaiming of what Chinese believe to be national territories lost since Imperial China was defeated by the Brits in the Opium War of 1840-42

A full translation is at Hong Kong blog, Midnight Express 2046 via asian-defence-news.blogspot.com.

The timeline and predictions for wars out 40 years makes no sense. An accurate strategy or forecast could not be made that far out.

Here is Pravda’s take on the war scenarios

A short list of these wars includes a unifying war with Taiwan in 2020-2025, and even if the US and Japan intervene, China will win without doubts.

The next battle will be over the Spratly Islands with Vietnam, and possibly with the Philippines in 2025-2030. Then there will be a war with India for the return of Southern Tibet in 2035-2040. Next there will be Japan and the return of the Senkaku Islands and the Ryukyu Islands (2040-2045), followed by unification of Outer Mongolia (now MHP) in 2045-2050. And, finally, a war with Russia that since the time of the “Old China” occupied 1.6 million square kilometers of land and consequently, by the definition of the newspaper, is the worst enemy of China who after winning the previous five wars must be forced to pay.

It should be emphasized that this was published in a rather serious paper. It cannot and should not be refuted. Any military analyst knows that China, with all due respect to its armed forces, will be defeated in the first war over Taiwan. The US, NATO and Japan are many times stronger than the PRC in all respects. In addition, under the current communist regime this path of the historical development is not realistic. The Chinese Constitution adopted a defensive doctrine that rejects the principle of the first attack, and provides for the appropriate structure of the armed forces.

What was the reason behind publishing this unscientific fiction? It was done in order to give direction to the ideological work of the internal opposition groups closely associated with private capital and corrupt government officials in the event of the collapse of the Communist Party.

A “Color” revolution in China is impossible, but it should be prepared – I am positive that the originators of this and other similar publications are guided by this logic. In the case of the military saga there is a similar task – to heat concerns of China’s neighbors by the alleged claims to certain lands, forcing them to limit the economic cooperation and prevent the penetration of China’s domestic markets. At the same time appropriations for the purchase of weapons will be increased. It is noteworthy that nowhere in the forecast a war with the US is mentioned. The latter is only referenced as a source of financial aid to China’s enemies.

Obviously, one of the main objectives is to drive a wedge between Russia and China, because the union of Russian nuclear technology and Chinese defense and human capacity is able to stop and defeat any aggressor. The same goal was set by the US intelligence community judging by the forecast of the CIA published earlier this year.

It is clear that the two publications will not affect the political climate. However, they are interesting because these topics are covered by the media in such a detailed and open manner for the first time. Therefore, it can be concluded that in the future these theses will be developed and expanded in a number of other media outlets in line with the principles of the organization of information warfare where the CIA has a great deal of experience.

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