China had movie box office of $2.06 billion in 2011 and 2.7 billion in 2012. A strong second half of 2013 could result in nearly $4 billion in box office. This would be about double the market of 2011 and double the third place national market of Japan.
China’s most recent week shows a second half blockbuster “Young Detective Dee” which had a $55 million take on one weekend.
Global movie box office was $34.7 billion in 2012 and $10.8 billion in North America. North America has about 1% growth from the prior year.
China’s richest man, Wang Jianlin, will spend over $8 billion to create an Oriental Movie Metropolis, set to span 376 hectares (1.44 square miles), in the eastern port city of Qingdao. It will house 20 studios that will turn out 100 films a year, including 30 foreign productions.
The Movie Metropolis complex is set to begin operations in 2016 and will also feature a 3,000-seat theatre and a shopping centre with seven hotels.
There is a large expansion of movie theaters as well. Imax locations could increase from about 100 to 400 in China over the next few years.
About 50% of the Chinese box office goes to american movies.
China is on track to pass North America as the largest movie market in about 2016.
However, only half of the box office will be going to American movies.
American movies are already including chinese locations into movies and sharing production in order to get shown for more weeks in Chinese theaters.
China has four times the North American population. Just getting to $20,000 per capita could have equal per capita spending on movie tickets. China is heading to four times the movie market before it gets to equal per capita GDP. China should be double the North American movie market by about 2020. This means China would have an equal market for North American movies (half of the market) in 2020.
It is likely that Chinese actors will be cast in leading roles in American action movies like Avengers 3. Hawkeye could be recast or new characters and heroes could be created.
By 2025, China could have four times the North American movie market and double the market for Hollywood-China coproductions.
Will Hollywood sell out for money ? Before you can say “Show me money”. If they can make more money, the answer is automatically yes.
I’m working on the script right now, and if someone came to me and said, ‘We’re looking into doing a chunk of this in China’—well, I’d have to think about it,” admitted Joss Whedon. “China is on my radar. It can’t not be at this point,” said Whedon in reference to the country’s importance to international box office revenue. However, Joss says he’s only willing to go so far to cater to that specific interest, “If a studio person said to me, ‘Hey, that scene that takes place in Miami and features flamingos has to be filmed in China,’ I would be like, ‘Well, no, that doesn’t make any sense. And no, there is no scene about flamingos in Avengers 2. I can’t stress that enough. I don’t want the fanboys to be abuzz tomorrow about flamingos.”
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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