The IMF’s (International Monetary Fund) latest world outlook is out. Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions.
The IMF also cut its global growth forecast to 2.9% in 2013, down from its 3.2% projection in July. For 2014, it now forecasts 3.6% growth, down from its forecast of 3.8% in July. The IMF assumes is that the US shutdown will end and there’ll be no problem raising the debt ceiling.
Here is the full 249 page report that was released October, 2013
Looking ahead, global activity is expected to strengthen moderately but the risks to the forecast remain to the downside. The impulse is projected to come from the advanced economies, where output is expected to expand at a pace of about 2 percent in 2014, about ¾ percentage point more than in 2013. Drivers of the projected uptick are a stronger U.S. economy, an appreciable reduction in fiscal tightening (except in Japan), and highly accommodative monetary conditions. Growth in the euro area will be held back by the very weak economies in the periphery.
Emerging market and developing economies are projected to expand by about 5 percent in 2014, as fiscal policy is forecast to stay broadly neutral and real interest rates to remain relatively low. Unemployment will remain unacceptably high in many advanced economies as well as in various emerging market economies, notably those in the Middle East and North Africa.
There are various plans such as General Electrics Industrial Internet that promise to eventually add trillions to the world economy. It seems those improvements might be used to get the world economy back to the middle gear of growth.
Similarly other disruptive technology for 2025 like mobile internet would be hopes to rescue the world economy from being terrible.
Advanced oil recovery is ranked as the 11th most important impactful technology for 2025 by McKinsey
The McKinsey Global Institute identifies 12 technologies that could drive truly massive economic transformations and disruptions in the coming years. Applications of the 12 technologies discussed in the report could have a potential economic impact between $14 trillion and $33 trillion a year in 2025.
The high side estimate of $30 trillion would be adding about 2% per year to world economic growth.
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Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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