They made the “medium-mortality” assumption (84.19 years for men and 90.93 years for women in 2060) based on the statistics of mortality from 1970 to 2010 and set the “high-mortality” assumption (83.22 years and 89.96 years for men and women, respectively) and the “low-mortality” assumption (85.14 years and 91.90 years for men and women, respectively) according to the 99% confidence interval of the mortality index parameters.
Currently Japanese women’s average life expectancy was 86 and Japanese men’s average life expectancy was 79. However, life expectancy is a lagging indicator since it is based upon people dieing today who were born 79-86 years ago.
The median age in Japan is projected to be over 55 by 2040 and over 57 by 2060. Currently the median age in Japan is 45.
There is a strong likelihood that there will be great advances against cancer, heart disease and alzheimers. There is also a good chance for antiaging therapies from stem cells and gene therapy.
It is probable that a likely mortality scenario for Japan is 95 years for men and 100 years for women. Japan would then head to a median age of 65 by 2050.
Antiaging success would mean that most of the people over 65 would be healthy and vigorous.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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