CEBR makes GDP predictions out to 2028

The economic consultancy Cebr (Centre for Economics and Business Research) released its annual report The World Economic League Table. The report gives an end of year report on GDP in the 30 largest economies in the world. It also forecasts which countries will be in the ‘Top Thirty’ for 5, 10 and 15 years ahead.

This year’s report is updated to take account of the likely surplus of energy and falling oil and gas prices in the 2020s, weaker commodity prices than had previously been expected and the sell-off of some emerging market currencies in mid-2013.

Nextbigfuture disagrees with the CEBR and believes that China’s currency will appreciate more quickly so that China will pass the US economy on a nominal exchange basis by 2020. The CEBR is predicting a very strong US dollar. They are predicting for the US to vastly strengthen against Germany and most other countries.

The key points of this year’s report are:

* Our latest forecasts now show China overtaking the US in 2028 to become the world’s largest economy. This is later than some analysts have suggested and reflects the continuing performance of the US as the West’s strongest economy and the slowing down of the Chinese economy.

* India overtakes Japan in 2028 to become the world’s third largest economy. Abenomics means that Japan is likely to follow a weak currency policy for the foreseeable future which means that its GDP in dollar terms gets overtaken by India earlier than we had previously expected.

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