I think computers will still get a lot better, but the next few years could go off the rails temporarily if what the industry was counting on doing does not happen. The other options may not be ready or what is ready costs too much.
Moore’s law requires execution on a tight schedule. The industry’s plan A was to finally go with EUV lithography and 450 mm wafers.
A lot of stuff is almost ready. But EUV has almost been ready for ten-fifteen years. They just need to go from 10 wafers to 100 wafers per hour.
patterning using block copolymer
scaled up parallel e-beam lithography
memristors for memory and logic
quantum dots with cellular automata
The industry will be able to do things to make computers faster but they have to do it at scale and do it for the right price.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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