Separatist Parti Québécois projected to lose. Quebec Liberals likely to win Majority

Threehundredeight.com project Philippe Couillard’s Quebec Liberal Party is on track to win tonight’s provincial election in Quebec and form a new government. Pauline Marois’s Parti Québécois should form the Official Opposition, while François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec and Françoise David’s Québec Solidaire should retain their positions as the third and fourth parties, respectively, in the National Assembly.

The final projection suggests that the Liberals are very likely to win a majority government, though a minority government is still a distinct possibility.

This would put the issue of Quebec separation away for at least 5 years. Demographics are generally trending away from separation. Younger Quebecers are less in favor of separation.

Nearly 70 per cent of Quebecers (68%) say they are against a referendum in the next five years. When asked if a referendum were held tomorrow, twice as many Quebecers say they’d vote against sovereignty than for it (59% to 28%).

The Liberals are projected to win between 60 and 78 seats, putting them mostly over the 63-seat mark needed to form a majority government. They should take between 38.5% and 44.2% of the popular vote. Their best performance since 2003, when Jean Charest first won a majority government, is thus possible. The precise projection is for the Liberals to take 40.1% of the vote and win 69 seats, their best result since 2008 and 2003, respectively.

Quebec Liberal Party on top Red.
Parti Québécois Dark Blue
Coalition Avenir Québec Light Blue
Québec Solidaire Orange

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