India needs sustained growth at over 8.5% to catch up to near developed world levels in the 2050s at only 5.3% India will be like South America now in the 2050s

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first budget since his election win was seen as a missed chance to take tough measures on subsidies by economists at banks including Deutsche Bank AG and Nomura Holdings Inc.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley retained the fiscal shortfall target at 4.1 percent of gross domestic product while leaving revenue and expenditure forecasts largely similar to an interim budget in February. At the same time, he unveiled plans to “overhaul” food and fuel subsidies to narrow the fiscal gap to 3 percent of GDP in 2017.

The budget was “almost a copy and paste of the interim budget” and “a lost opportunity” to detail bold steps to revive economic growth,

There were some changes in the budget relative to the prior administration and in general the budget does trend in positive directions for increasing GDP growth and getting to more solid finances.

Modi’s government will have to do more in the next two years if they want India to get back to 8% GDP growth.

A general recovery and modest reforms can get India back to 6% and maybe 6.5% GDP growth. India has 1.3% population growth.

Over the course of two decades the difference between 4% per capita GDP growth (5.3% GDP growth – 1.3$ population growth) and 7.2% per capita GDP growth (8.5% GDP growth) is becoming two times richer versus becoming 4 times richer.

Getting to $3000 per capita (about the level of the Philippines or Nigeria) or $6000 per capita (about the level of Thailand or Peru now) in 20 years.

Over 40 years it would be becoming 4 times richer or 16 times richer.

Getting to $6000 per capita (about the level of Thailand or Peru now) or $24000 per capita (about the level of South America or Bahrain now) in 40 years.

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