Up until 1900, less than 10% would make it past 80.
Among the population those over 60 were less than 10% of the population. People had more kids and lived shorter lives.
Lagging survival based on the age people die in a year. How old were people when they died in 1991
What are the Ages that British Actuaries think Brits will die
So people born in 1900, had a 10% chance make it to 1991.
But people born in 1991 are expected to have a 20% chance make it 100 according to statistical trends in improving longevity.
There is more of a chance that people should make it 100 than did it make it to 91.
Also, some sources claim that there has been “no improvement in maximum human lifespan”.
There is a lot of difference between 10% of the people making it to 90 and 0.1% making it to 90.
There were 92 million people in the US in 1910. There are now 55000 centenarians in the US.
So 0.06% made it to 100.
The Oldest verified female made to 122 and the oldest verified man to 116.
But 1 in a billion is not something to plan on or we would buy Powerball tickets as part of our retirement plans.
Almost 40% of Swedish females born in 1920 made it to 2010
Japanese women live four years longer than american and british
You should ignore the bottom half of the survival rates if you
* not poor
* never smoked
* not sedentary
* do not drink to excess
* do not have diabetes
Use the forward looking estimates.
So by not doing stupid things to shorten life then 100 becomes a lot more possible and reasonable.
For chances at really big lifespan improvement then provide support to the research that is targeted at that goal.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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