Long term growth to 2060

In general for mainstream economic projections out to 2060,

* increased urbanization from about 50% to 65% in 2030 and then to about 70-80% in 2060
* increased global middle class ($10-100 per day PPP) to about 65% (6 billion out of 8.5 billion) by 2030
* The increase in per capita income of the developing countries improve to about 25%-60% of developing countries in 2060. Developed countries double per capita income from todays level.

There are problems significantly progressing the last 10-20% of the world population. Those lagging countries and people in Africa and Asia have substantial health problems with a lot of their people. Malnutrition has led to stunting.

Still most of the world will be roughly middle class developed countries by 2030-2040 and this should continue to have improvement to 2060. This is a big shift from most of the worlds people being very poor.

The OECD Looking to 2060: A Global Vision of Long Term Growth

Global GDP is expected to grow at around 3% per year over the next 50 years, but wide variations are forecast between countries and regions. Fast-growing emerging countries will be the principal driver of the long-term outlook. Growth rates of emerging countries will eventually slow, converging towards those projected for the OECD area. Growth and living standards are supported by active implementation of fiscal and structural reforms.

* In parallel, the relative size of economies will change radically over the next 50 years. The combined GDP of China and India will soon surpass that of the G7 economies and will exceed that of the entire current OECD membership by 2060. The global saving rate will remain fairly stable until 2030. The rising weight of high-saving countries especially China and India will compensate for the tendency of private saving rates to fall in individual countries, mostly on account of aging.

* Notwithstanding fast growth in low-income and emerging countries, large cross-country differences in living standards will persist in 2060.

* Income per capita in the poorest economies will more than quadruple by 2060, and China and India will experience more than a seven-fold increase, but living standards in these countries and some other emerging countries will still only be one-quarter to 60% of the level in the leading countries in 2060.

* Bolder structural reforms and more ambitious fiscal policy could raise long-run living standards by an average of 16% relative to the baseline scenario of moderate policy improvements. Ambitious product market reforms, which raise productivity growth, could increase global GDP by an average of about 10%. Policies that induce convergence towards best practice labour force participation could increase GDP by close to 6% on average

* Global imbalances could widen up until 2030 perhaps reaching pre-crisis levels , but deeper and faster structural and fiscal reforms could reduce imbalances by as much as one-quarter by then.

The 2005 PPP numbers per capita number were adjusted by about 20% for developing countries like China and India in the most recent PPP numbers. These numbers 50 years out have a wide range of variability as seen by the suggestion to improve growth by 20% over the 50 year period

Other projections to 2050

Leading per capita income by 2050, the Knight Frank and Citi Private Wealth Report estimates the world’s wealthy citizens will be: Singapore ($137,710), Hong Kong ($116,639), Taiwan ($114,093) and South Korea ($107,752). The only western economy projected to remain in the top five is the U.S., with an estimated per capita income of $100,802.

PWC has a projection to 2050
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