China’s nine page position on climate change – fund at least to antipoverty level and toss in related intellectual property

China provided a nine page position paper on climate change.

Here are the highlights

* If the developed countries are serious about this then fund it at least to the level of anti-poverty to 1% of GDP in the long run (a $100 billion pledge to the same fund should be reached by $10 billion increments, starting from a $40 billion floor this year)

* the promised $100 billion in annual climate financing that Western nations have already pledged to developing countries for carbon emission control and other actions by 2020 is only the “starting point” for additional Western financial commitments that must be laid out in a “clear road map,” which includes “specific targets, timelines and identified sources;”

* Western countries also need to remove “obstacles such as IPRs [intellectual property rights]” to “promote, facilitate and finance the transfer” of “technologies and know-how” to developing countries in advance of any future climate deal;

Some believe that China will announce a peak year for emissions but this will not happen soon

China will not announce a peak year for emissions. Based on China’s carbon intensity pledge, China will have over 30% more emissions in 2020. China will double to triple its power generation by 2030. China would need to achieve emissions intensity reductions equal to its GDP growth for a peak to occur. So 4.2% emissions intensity reduction or 6 times the world average of 0.7% would be needed to offset 4.2% GDP growth. By 2020, China will have run out of rivers to dam for hydro. So non-carbon power will be tougher after 2020 without the large hydro power share.

China needs to ramp up nuclear plant construction to replace all of the coal. One the order of 30 nuclear plants completed each year. China would also have to cap the emissions from cars. Adding 20-30 million cars per year. China will triple its emissions and maybe cap them then. But it won’t be before 2030 and why would China announce it officially now or next year. It is obvious to anyone willing to look at the energy, transportation and economic development and internal politics.

One way for China to accelerate peak emissions would be to massively scale natural gas and nuclear and then use the coal plants less. This would also be deep into the 2020s and tough to bring in before 2030. Natural gas has to be completely built out by China (pipelines, plants, mines). Say China targets 5% GDP growth as being okay in 2030, then 3% efficiency, 2% clean power and 1% actual shutdown of coal or reduction of coal plant usage would be a possible mix to achieve less emissions than the prior year.

For China to start shrinking emissions decarbonization of energy, transportation, industry and construction would have to be more than the GDP growth for each and every year after the “emission peak year”.

I guess it is possible that China could announce a peak year and then blow past it. But I do not see why they would bother. They want the US and developed countries to shoulder most of the costs.

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