Wood MacKenzie forecasts that the US will have achieved energy independence goal by 2025, marking the first time since 1952 that the country will export more energy than it imports.
Energy Independence could happen even faster:
1. Crude export ban lifted would boost production up to 400,000 barrels per day
if the crude export ban is lifted then it is likely that energy independence will be attained before 2025. The move would increase the price realized by domestic upstream producers as they would be able to access higher priced international markets. Receiving an additional US$5 per barrel could result in a production increase of 350-400,000 barrels per day.
2. US vehicle fleet is forecast to become 40% more efficient by 2030. Any further vehicle efficiency improvement would reduce US oil demand and, consequently, net oil imports.
3. New production techniques that could boost recovery rates of tight oil and shale gas. Refracturing existing wells is one potential technique
Over the past seven years, the country has added three million barrels per day of tight oil and 27.5 billion cubic feet per day of shale gas to the global energy mix – an impressive 42% increase in production.
Meanwhile, domestic demand for oil and gas is decreasing, primarily due to efficiency gains in power generation. The US transport sector is using more alternative fuels, such as natural gas and biofuels, displacing the demand for oil