300 million college graduates in developing countries are more likely to take your job than a robot for the next 20 years

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The global labor force will be about 3.5 billion in 2030. Based on current trends in population, education, and labor demand, a McKinsey Global report projects that by 2020 the global economy could face the following hurdles:

* 38 million to 40 million fewer workers with tertiary education (college or postgraduate degrees) than employers will need, or 13 percent of the demand for such workers

* 45 million too few workers with secondary education in developing economies, or 15 percent of the demand for such workers

* 90 million to 95 million more low-skill workers (those without college training in advanced economies or without even secondary education in developing economies) than employers will need, or 11 percent oversupply of such workers

Around the globe today, 200 million people are out of work, according to the International Labor Organization. About 40 million of these people live in advanced economies and tens of millions more in those nations are underemployed or have become discouraged and dropped out of the labor force.

Technology is changing the nature of work: as companies redefine how and where different tasks are carried out, they require new skills and new employer-employee relationships. Globalization plays a role, too, by expanding access to pools of low-cost talent and creating greater need for workers with higher levels of education and specific skills in advanced economies.

16 million more college educated people each year vs 180,000 industrial robots

What Global Companies will be doing :

1. Optimize global supply chains
One obvious strategy for many global companies is to go where the talent is abundant or where the costs are low, as many companies have done in the past three decades.

2. Exploit technology to overcome skill and geographic mismatches
If workers don’t have the right skills or live in the right place, companies can use technologies to adapt work to the skills of the available labor supply or move work electronically to available workers. With broadband communications and new online collaboration tools, an increasing range of jobs can be performed by employees working from their homes or from remote centers in low-cost areas within developed economies.

3. Make human capital development a competitive advantage
Instead of leaving it to government to transform education and training systems to meet their needs, companies may make the strategic decision to take a direct role in creating the skilled workforces and talent pipelines they need. In some industries, the ability to fill talent gaps more effectively may become an important competitive advantage. This strategy would most likely entail a much larger scale of employee education and training than we have seen from companies in recent decades.

IT outsourcing giant Infosys is a prime example. It has become one of the world’s biggest and most effective training institutions, providing training for 45,000 employees each year. At its Global Education Center in Mysore, India, the company can accommodate 14,000 entry-level programmers at a time for a 23-week course.

Video conferencing, partial automation, tele-operation and other technology will be used to enable more work to be shifted.

Home Care robots and self driving cars will take longer to scale up and have a lot of employment impact

Homecare robots are coming but it will take over ten years for anything but small scale pilot deployment.

Extensive home delivery services from Google and Amazon and other providers could reduce the demand for full time long term care workers.

“Smart” technology such as sensors, voice activation, GPS, Bluetooth, cellular connectivity via mobile phones, smartphone monitoring apps and sophisticated computers are making aging in place a viable option for an increasing number of people. Aging-in-place technology is currently a $2 billion industry, and it is expected to rise to $30 billion by 2020.

More mundane technology will have more impact on the overall number of jobs in most cases

Forklifts and Pallets are used effectively at Costco

300 million college graduates in developing countries are more likely to take your job than a robot for the next 20 years

by

The global labor force will be about 3.5 billion in 2030. Based on current trends in population, education, and labor demand, a McKinsey Global report projects that by 2020 the global economy could face the following hurdles:

* 38 million to 40 million fewer workers with tertiary education (college or postgraduate degrees) than employers will need, or 13 percent of the demand for such workers

* 45 million too few workers with secondary education in developing economies, or 15 percent of the demand for such workers

* 90 million to 95 million more low-skill workers (those without college training in advanced economies or without even secondary education in developing economies) than employers will need, or 11 percent oversupply of such workers

Around the globe today, 200 million people are out of work, according to the International Labor Organization. About 40 million of these people live in advanced economies and tens of millions more in those nations are underemployed or have become discouraged and dropped out of the labor force.

Technology is changing the nature of work: as companies redefine how and where different tasks are carried out, they require new skills and new employer-employee relationships. Globalization plays a role, too, by expanding access to pools of low-cost talent and creating greater need for workers with higher levels of education and specific skills in advanced economies.

16 million more college educated people each year vs 180,000 industrial robots

What Global Companies will be doing :

1. Optimize global supply chains
One obvious strategy for many global companies is to go where the talent is abundant or where the costs are low, as many companies have done in the past three decades.

2. Exploit technology to overcome skill and geographic mismatches
If workers don’t have the right skills or live in the right place, companies can use technologies to adapt work to the skills of the available labor supply or move work electronically to available workers. With broadband communications and new online collaboration tools, an increasing range of jobs can be performed by employees working from their homes or from remote centers in low-cost areas within developed economies.

3. Make human capital development a competitive advantage
Instead of leaving it to government to transform education and training systems to meet their needs, companies may make the strategic decision to take a direct role in creating the skilled workforces and talent pipelines they need. In some industries, the ability to fill talent gaps more effectively may become an important competitive advantage. This strategy would most likely entail a much larger scale of employee education and training than we have seen from companies in recent decades.

IT outsourcing giant Infosys is a prime example. It has become one of the world’s biggest and most effective training institutions, providing training for 45,000 employees each year. At its Global Education Center in Mysore, India, the company can accommodate 14,000 entry-level programmers at a time for a 23-week course.

Video conferencing, partial automation, tele-operation and other technology will be used to enable more work to be shifted.

Home Care robots and self driving cars will take longer to scale up and have a lot of employment impact

Homecare robots are coming but it will take over ten years for anything but small scale pilot deployment.

Extensive home delivery services from Google and Amazon and other providers could reduce the demand for full time long term care workers.

“Smart” technology such as sensors, voice activation, GPS, Bluetooth, cellular connectivity via mobile phones, smartphone monitoring apps and sophisticated computers are making aging in place a viable option for an increasing number of people. Aging-in-place technology is currently a $2 billion industry, and it is expected to rise to $30 billion by 2020.

More mundane technology will have more impact on the overall number of jobs in most cases

Forklifts and Pallets are used effectively at Costco