The likely near term situation for when China will pass the exchange rate adjusted GDP for the USA and the collective GDP of Europe is becoming clearer based upon statistical method changes and more clearly apparent currency and GDP projections for the five years.
December 16, 2014, China will be adjusting its GDP based upon accounting changes and a new business census. This should boost China’s (including Hong Kong and Macau) GDP to about 13.7 trillion in 2015.
Deutsche bank is forecasting the Euro to greatly weaken against the US dollar and the Chinese yuan into 2017.
2014 1.24 US dollars to 1 Euro
2015 1.15 US dollars to 1 Euro
2016 1.05 US dollars to 1 Euro
2017 0.95 US dollars to 1 Euro
Others have similar currency forecasts.
The European Union had (28 countries) a GDP of 13.07 trillion Euros at the end of 2013.
The IMF is expecting Europe GDP growth to be about 1.5% or less.
The Euro currency weakening by about 10% per year will enable China to pass Europe sooner.
China’s (including Hong Kong and Macau) GDP to about 13.7 trillion in 2015 would be at 74% of the US economy.
Only 2% annual strengthening in currency and 4% annual differential in GDP growth over the USA would mean China would pass the USA in overall nominal economy in 2020. However, 2019 would have another China business census adjustment.
The nationwide business census review offsets underrepresentation of China’s rapidly-expanding services industry. The past two censuses led to a 16.8 percent revision to 2004 GDP size and a 4.4 percent increase in 2008.
Odds would indicate that 2019 would be when China (including Hong Kong and Macua) would pass the USA because of the 2019 business census. Hong Kong and Macau are part of China but are separated in many statistical reports.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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