Canada’s Scotiabank has a Global Auto Report They reported 71 million cars were produced in 2014 and expect 74 million cars for 2015.
China Will Continue To Lead Global Gains
China will continue to be the auto industry’s growth leader over the coming year. We expect auto demand in China to grow 7% in 2015 to nearly 19.5 million units. Despite growing concerns about an economic slowdown in the most populous nation, demand for new automobiles continues to be driven by rising vehicle ownership in tier 2 and 3 cities, especially for CUVs, which are advancing by 40% per annum. Luxury models also continue to outperform alongside rising wealth and as households shift their purchases from a weakening real estate market. Monetary easing by the central bank and a proliferation of new models will also support car sales over the coming year. Estimates suggest that nearly 20% of all new vehicle sales are now financed in China, up from 10% as recently as 2010. Meanwhile, automakers launched 10 new CUVs in late 2014 and more are coming in the New Year. However, last year’s 12% increase likely marks the end of more than a decade of double-digit gains. We believe that growth will shift into single-digits going forward. While urbanization and employment growth remain strong, per capital urban income growth has moderated from the double-digit pace of the past decade and will dampen sales growth.
Record Volumes In North America
Calendar-year 2015 is likely to set all-time highs for the North American auto market. Over the coming year, combined vehicle sales and production in Canada, Mexico and the United States are expected to surpass the 2000 peak, when sales totalled 19.8 million units and assemblies topped 17.6 million. Both Canada and Mexico set sales records in 2014, and are poised to exceed those totals in 2015, as exports from both countries benefit from robust U.S. demand. Meanwhile, U.S. purchases are set to approach 17 million units.
SOURCES – Scotiabank