China Provincial Population Deputy Head calls for a mandatory two child minimum

Mei Zhiqiang, deputy head of the birth-control bureau in Shanxi province and a Standing Committee member of the province’s political advisory body, is calling for a two child minimum in China.

“For the prosperity of our nation and the happiness of us and our children, we should make a serious effort to adjust the demographic structure and make our next generation have two children through policy and system design,” Mei said, according to various media reports.

The decades-old one-child policy has skewed China’s population older, as well as resulted in far more boys than girls, due to some couples seeking to make sure their only child would be male. The aging problem is weighing on China’s pension system, while the gender imbalance has made it hard for some men to find wives.

As a result, Mei said in his proposal to the provincial political advisory body earlier this year, the mere relaxation of the one-child policy isn’t enough, and two-child policy should be enforced.

The Dahe Daily says forcig two children would be ridiculous. The answer lies in easing the financial burden on married couples in order to encourage them to have a second child.

The Global Times says it is better to carry forward the new policy through encouragement and incentives, which will be more easily accepted by the people.

Nextbigfuture notes that the main thing is that the discussion in China has changed to how to encourage more children instead of keeping restritions on children. This would seem to mean that any bans on having children will be removed soon. It will be 24 months at most for the full no restrictions on having two children and maybe 3 years until there are not restrictions at all.

China annual number of babies could go from 16 million to 25.5 million babies in 2016.

US Census Bureau, 2010 estimate before th2 2013 changes or any new changes in China birth policy.

2020: 1,384,545,000
2030: 1,391,491,000
2040: 1,358,519,000
2050: 1,303,723,000

After the change (plus a complete lifting of any restriction children before 2018 and a shift to incentiving babies before 2022), I estimate

2020: 1.43 billion
2030: 1.53 billion
2040: 1.6 billion
2050: 1.65 billion

Here is an analysis of China’s population based on changes in total fertility combined with improved life expectancy.

SOURCES – Global Times, Monash University, wikipedia, Dahe Daily, Marketwatch