Michael Dittmar wrote a series of posts about nuclear energy that was published on The Oil Drum in 2009. In the first post of the series, he said that uranium “civilian uranium stocks are expected to be exhausted during the next few years” and “the current uranium supply situation is unsustainable”. Basically lack of uranium production from uranium mines would cause lack of nuclear fuel which would result in steadily dropping nuclear power generation. I made a series of three bets with Dittmar.
1. World Uranium production (I won in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013. Lost in 2014)
2. World Nuclear power generation bets going to 2018 (I won in 2010, lost 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014)
3. Uranium production in Kazakhstan (I won 2010, 2011)
So out of 13 bets, I have won 7 bets and lost 6.
The hangover from Fukushima is costing Brian Wang at Nextbigfuture some of these predictive bets made in 2009 in regards to nuclear power generation and uranium production.
Uranium production was hit by the Ranger mine in Australia shutting down. The indigenous people and the mining company could not come to terms. Africa also had less production. Uranium production is not going up that fast because the price is low. the price is low because of 40 perfectly good reactors being shut down in Japan. Those 40 reactors (and 15 other older ones) would have easily generated 300 TWh. There were also several reactors shutdown prematurely in Germany. None of this has to do with Dittmars central thesis of “running out of producible uranium”.
For 2015, Canada Cameco has started production at Cigar Lake. The Cigar Lake operation is expected to produce 6 million to 8 million pounds of uranium oxide (2308 to 3077 tU) in 2015, ramping up to full annual production rate of 18 million pounds per year (6920 tU) by 2018.
Japan should begin nuclear restarts in August for 2 reactors.
Dittmar Brian Midpoint 2009 2575 TWhe 2600 TWhe 2587.5 Actual 2558 twh. Dittmar wins 2010 2550 TWhe 2630 2590 Actual 2630 twh. Brian wins 2011 2550 2650 2600 Actual 2518 twh. Dittmar wins 2012 2550 2700 2625 Actual 2346 twh. Dittmar wins 2013 2525 2750 2637.5 Actual 2359 twh. Dittmar wins 2014 2250 2800 2525 Actual 2410 twh. Dittmar wins 2015 2250 2900 2575 2016 2250 3200 2725 2017 2250 3500 2875 2018 2250 3800 3025
The predictions and the bet is for the uranium production of the country of Kazakhstan. So not just Kazatomprom, although that is most of the production.
Again we use the World Nuclear Association numbers of uranium production when reported.
Brian Wang Dittmar Midpoint 2010 16500 tons 15000 tons 15750 tons 17,803 tonnes in 2010. Brian wins 2011 18000 t + 17,999.9 t or less 18000 tons 19,450 tons in 2011. Brian wins
World uranium production bets for 2010 through 2018
Uranium predictions
Brian Wang Dittmar midpoint
2010 56000 tons 45,000 tons 50,500 tons 53,663 tonnes. Brian wins
2011 60000 tons 45,000 52,500 tons 53,494 tons Brian wins
2012 64000 tons 45,000 54,500 tons 58,394 tons Brian wins
2013 68000 tons 45,000 56,500 tons 59,370 tons Brian wins
2014 72000 tons 45,000 58,500 tons 56,217 tons Dittmar wins
2015 76000 tons 45,000 60,500 tons
2016 80000 tons 45,000 62,500 tons
2017 84000 tons 45,000 64,500 tons
2018 88000 tons 45,000 66,500 tons
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.