According to the 2016 edition of the BP Energy Outlook, launched last month, BP says world energy consumption will grow by 34% between 2014 and 2035, from 12,928 million tonnes oil equivalent (toe) to 17,307 million toe. Some 95% of this growth will come from non-OECD countries.
The global use of nuclear energy is forecast to grow by 1.9% per year from 574.0 million toe in 2014 to 859.2 million toe in 2035, which is an overall increase of 50%.
Nuclear output in the European Union and North America is expected to decline 29% and 13%, respectively, as aging reactors are gradually retired and “the economic and political challenges of nuclear energy stunt new investments”. However, output in China is forecast to increase 11.2% annually. BP said Japan’s nuclear output will reach 60% of its 2010 level by 2020 as reactors restart over the next five years.
Coal’s share of global primary energy production is expected to drop from 30% in 2014 to 25% in 2035.
By 2035, non-fossil fuels will make up 21% of global primary energy compared with the current 14%. Among non-fossil fuels, renewables (including biofuels) are forecast to grow 6.6% per year, taking their share of primary energy from around 3% today to 9% by 2025.