IEEE Spectrum asked AI experts about when human level AI will be achieved and as usual there was a massive range of dates from a few years to hundreds of years.
Gary Marcus talks about many decades before AI’s can process inputs and situations with the flexibility and adaptability of humans.
As usual the questions are how can sufficient flexibility and extensibility be solved. Also can the AI’s be placed with usefully broad constrained environments. Can sensors and other solutions be used to solve the adaptability issues.
We see this with the self driving cars in the wild problems and robotics in the home, hospital and factory.
Super precise (millimeter) or better global mapping can be used to help robots and AIs to usefully get around the world. General global maps might be only centimeter or meter precise. Then even more precise maps can be in the factory or across the city.
AI is already tens of billions of dollars of industry and investment. AI will reach across most of the trillion dollar IT industry within ten years.
Entire industries will be AI dominated
Rodney Brooks talked about 50-100 years until we have AI with dog level intelligence and consciousness. He also thinks those AI dogs will have bad noses.
This is meaningless and pointless.
AIs could dominate the global economy without consciousness. AIs will tap into global networks of sensors and soon low orbit global satellites.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.