Gary Marcus talks about many decades before AI’s can process inputs and situations with the flexibility and adaptability of humans.
As usual the questions are how can sufficient flexibility and extensibility be solved. Also can the AI’s be placed with usefully broad constrained environments. Can sensors and other solutions be used to solve the adaptability issues.
We see this with the self driving cars in the wild problems and robotics in the home, hospital and factory.
Super precise (millimeter) or better global mapping can be used to help robots and AIs to usefully get around the world. General global maps might be only centimeter or meter precise. Then even more precise maps can be in the factory or across the city.
AI is already tens of billions of dollars of industry and investment. AI will reach across most of the trillion dollar IT industry within ten years.
Entire industries will be AI dominated
Rodney Brooks talked about 50-100 years until we have AI with dog level intelligence and consciousness. He also thinks those AI dogs will have bad noses.
This is meaningless and pointless.
AIs could dominate the global economy without consciousness. AIs will tap into global networks of sensors and soon low orbit global satellites.