China and India innovation forecast

China Science and Technology Exchange Center has a new 87 page report with a comprehensive analysis and rating of the national innovative competitiveness of the BRICS countries last year, with China on top, followed by Russia, South Africa, Brazil and India. The BRICS group of countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) represent approximately 42% of the world population and occupy 30% of the earth’s territory with a combined nominal GDP of approximately 23% of the world GDP and a combined trade volume of approximately 16% of the world trade. Over the past decade, the BRICS countries have contributed over half of the global economic growth.

BRICS countries invest heavily in research and development, with the annual R&D expenditures accounting for approximately 17% of the world‟s total, high-tech exports reaching nearly USD6 trillion or approximately 28% of the world‟s total, and publications of science papers totaling 590,000, approximately 27% of the world‟s total. As their contribution to global science, technology and innovation steadily increases, the international influence of the BRICS countries has been improving as well. The BRICS countries are pacesetters and leaders in their respective regions and lead regional countries in scientific, technological, economic and social development.

Forecast on the STI (Science Technology Innovation) competitiveness of BRICS countries:

The average score of innovation index of each BRICS country would be on the rise for 2017-2025 as the overall national innovation competitiveness of BRICS countries would be constantly strengthened over time. It is predicted that the innovation competitiveness of India would see a significant rise with its growth rate probably surpassing China between 2025-2030; the growth rate of Russia would fall and India would take over Russia in terms of its comprehensive STI competitiveness by 2030.

In terms of R&D expenditures per researcher (in full-time employment equivalent) Russia has the lowest figure among BRICS countries, at $80– $90 thousand (PPP) during the last 5 years. In other BRICS nations relevant figures in recent years were between $200–$250 thousand.

In 2015 BRICS countries produced almost 29% of the world‟s total number of Scopus-indexed publications; out of that, China‟s share was 18%, India‟s – 5%, Russia‟s and Brazil‟s – 2.6% each, and South Africa‟s – 0.72%.

In terms of forecasting, China’s comprehensive innovation index is expected to achieve rapid growth from 2016 to 2021 with an increase by 16.43 points and the annual growth rate will exceed 5.1%.

According to the forecast, India’s innovation index score will rise year by year, expecting to reach 26.79 points by 2020.

China has a innovation index score of 52.5 in 2017 and India is 35.5 according to the Global Innovation Index. This score is different from the China Science and Technology Exchange Center.

It appears that China is ahead in overall innovation but India could start improving more rapidly from 2025 to 2030.

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