I need to update and alter the January 2017 forecast andI will shift from calling it Mundane Singularity to Next Big Futures (Emerged Super technology or trillion dollar impacts). Therefore, to be included on the list something has to be a super-technology that will be emerging or in the some process of emergence or it has trillion or multi-trillion dollar impact.
I will drop memristors from the list as it is not tracking to trillion dollar impact and if it has uses for simulating synapses then it will be included in Artificial intelligence and neuromorphic systems.
1. Blockchain, cryptocurrency and Fintech [trillion dollar impact and super technology aspects]
I added blockchain, cryptocurrency and fintech to the list. Cryptocurrencies are already $150-200 billion. They are already big and will get bigger as in multi-trillion of dollar overall cryptocurrency markets by 2027 and massive industry and globally impacting blockchain applications.
* Blockchain ID
* Blockchain will bring security and tracaeble transactions for medical records and other applications.
2. Genetic Engineering, synthetic biology [potential trillion dollar impact and super technologies]
CRISPR and other advanced genetic engineering will have significant impact with actual deployed disease cures.
There will be some emergent transhuman applications as well.
3. Antiaging science and technology [potential trillion dollar impact and super technologies]
The first antiaging treatment (Metformin) could be approved by the FDA in the next ten years. There is many other technologies in this area as well which Nextbigfuture will continue to track, report and summarize.
4. DNA Nanotechnology and molecular nanotechnology [potential trillion dollar impact and super technologies]
I will predict that DNA molecular nanotechnology and other molecular nanotechnology become commercialized over the next ten years in significant ways. Not just $4-8 billion in the carbon nanotube industry or graphene but more precise and complex structures.
5. Artificial Intelligence [eventual trillion dollar impacts and super technologies]
IDC forecasts worldwide revenues for cognitive and artificial intelligence (AI) systems will reach $12.5 billion in 2017, an increase of 59.3% over 2016. China wants to make AI into a $150 billion industry by 2030.
6. Quantum computing [eventual trillion dollar impacts and super technologies]
Boosting AI to trillions of dollars will be Quantum computers. Universal quantum computers will achieve quantum dominance by the end of 2018. This will benefit AI and genetic engineering and other areas.
7. Robotics, self driving cars, drones [eventual trillion dollar impacts and super technologies]
Robotics and automation will have job and manufacturing impact.
Self driving cars will have big impacts especially when combined with ride sharing.
Drones have many applications and impacts from package delivery to enabling restructuring of many industries.
8. Sensors, internet of things [enabling super tech and large financial impacts]
Improved sensors are key to enabling more impactful self driving cars, drones and robotics.
9. Wireless power and other emerging electronics [eventual trillion dollar impacts and super technologies]
Wireless power will break out to impact furniture and building construction over the next ten years.
Supersmartphones, exoskeletons and wearable systems developments will be covered under this area.
10. Augmented and Virtual Reality
11. Super-Batteries and battery production ramp [eventual trillion dollar impacts and super technologies]
Batter batteries and having enough of them are key to electric cars and important for self driving cars and for robotics and for various consumer electronics.
12. Space [trillion dollar impacts and super technologies]
Super cheap and frequent space launch will succeed and combine with advanced electronics and sensors (smartphone technology applied in cubesats and new thin and flat space technology [branecraft] for large industrialization of space over the next ten years.
I will predict that Spacex will succeed with reusable rockets, Falcon Heavy an the Raptor engine and will further lower cost to space by 2-8 times over the next few years.
Enabling multi-gigabit internet everywhere and super accurate GPS everywhere which will enable robots, drones everywhere.
Enabled asteroid mining, moon mining and other space applications will have their first milestone successes over the next one to five years.
Multi-megawatt class space based solar power. Orbital ATK megaflex could deploy megawatt power.
Spider fab robotic assembly in orbit can get to 1 square kilometer or larger structures. Getting to 1 square kilometer would mean going from 1600 square meters and 150 kilowatts to 1 million square meters and 90 megawatts.
13. Energy [trillion dollar impacts and super technologies]
Fracking and other oil and gas drilling have had trillion dollar impacts. These will continue to have large impacts.
Solar energy is at a combined 170 billion per year level of impact.
Solar energy (picosolar and other systems and batteries) can be a key to more rapidly eliminating extreme poverty globally. Nextbigfuture is working on a book to describe a detailed plan in this area.
Advanced nuclear power may not be a trillion per year in the next ten years but will be in the decade that follows. China will build out a dozen or a few dozen high temperature pebble bed reactors after completing the first 200 MW commercial system next year. Terrestrial Energy will complete a commercial demonstration molten salt reactor in 2024.
14. Online education [trillion dollar impacts and super technologies]
Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) market size was projected to grow from USD 1.83 Billion in 2015 to USD 8.50 Billion by 2020. Educational improvements underpin improved economies and resilience to job market changes.
15. China, India and related [trillion dollar impacts]
China will have trillion dollar impact from the Belt and Road infrastructure buildout.
China will invest a trillion in high speed rail inside and outside China. The high speed rail outside China will connect south east Asia, central Asia, Europe and Africa to China.
China will build out super accurate GPS and a Panasia high voltage grid.
China is investing tens of billions to integrate several megacities (Yangtze Delta region around Shanghai, Jing-jin-ji around Beijing and the Pearl River Delta.) China will raise urbanization to over 60%.
China’s economy will usually grow by over a trillion each year.
India even if they only manage 6% per per year GDP growth would still grow to about a $4 trillion economy at the end of ten years. India should manage to become a solar fourth place economy on a nominal GDP basis.
South Asia collectively and Africa collectively will each have similar to India GDP growth.
16. Wars and military
Trillions are spent on militaries and larger wars have trillion(s) of dollars in impact
Other items. Additive manufacturing, new materials and hyperbroadband will get covered in enabling other identified areas.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.