China has laid out a for a comprehensive national renaissance by 2050. Xi’s report includes 12 sections, each breaking into numerous parts covering issues including housing, health, science, defense, artificial intelligence and the sharing economy.
1. The Xi plan projects the basic realization of socialist modernization by 2035, resulting in a major expansion of the middle class, with continuing growth through 2050. In the Chinese political lexicon, this means becoming the economic and technological equivalent of a developed nation. In GDP per capita terms, this would imply up to three times the current level, to between $20,000 and $30,000. With this performance, China will formally surpass the U.S. well before 2035.
From now to 2020 China’s economic growth rate should be about 6.5%
by 2025 it may fall to about 5%
by 2030 to around 4%,
and then stabilize at 3% -4% for some time.
China GNI per capita should be about 2017 $8800 2018 $9300 2019 $9800 (about the current level of Malaysia 2020 $10200 (about current world average GNI per capita) 2021 $10800 2022 $11500 2023 $12100 (At about World Bank high income definition) 2030 $16000 (about the current level of Uruguay) 2040 $22000 (about the current level of Saudi Arabia) 2050 $29000-32000 (about the current level of Spain, Italy and South Korea)
This would be in line with China getting around $20,000 GDP per capita by 2035 and around $30,000 per capita in todays dollars by 2050.
2. Sustainability. The Xi plan calls for a concentrated drive to eradicate poverty, as the increasing wealth gap resulting from rapid development is the enemy of long-term sustainability. In the five years since the 18th Party Congress, at least 60 million people were lifted out of poverty. If such a rate is sustained, the tens of millions currently living below the poverty line will all be lifted out of poverty in only a few years.
The environment is, of course, the other threat to sustainability. The Xi plan maps out major structural changes to the economy and energy usage and envisions a substantially cleaner environment in two decades.
3. Expansion. The Belt and Road Initiative is larger than the Marshall Plan both in size and geography. China will export its infrastructure-led economic development to a vast number of developing and developed countries.
4. Identity. Xi is emphasizing the importance of Chinese traditional culture.
Xi Jinping said the PLA must fully modernize by 2035, having phased out the last of its antiquated equipment. The PLA must adopt the latest in information warfare technology, boosting the PLA’s ability to share data across the armed services. By 2050, the PLA must become a “top ranked” military, which means rough parity with the United States military.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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