China details plans through 2050 – health, AI, sharing economy and more

China has laid out a for a comprehensive national renaissance by 2050. Xi’s report includes 12 sections, each breaking into numerous parts covering issues including housing, health, science, defense, artificial intelligence and the sharing economy.

1. The Xi plan projects the basic realization of socialist modernization by 2035, resulting in a major expansion of the middle class, with continuing growth through 2050. In the Chinese political lexicon, this means becoming the economic and technological equivalent of a developed nation. In GDP per capita terms, this would imply up to three times the current level, to between $20,000 and $30,000. With this performance, China will formally surpass the U.S. well before 2035.

Nextbigfuture covered a projection that China could have moderately slowing growth from now to 2050

From now to 2020 China’s economic growth rate should be about 6.5%
by 2025 it may fall to about 5%
by 2030 to around 4%,
and then stabilize at 3% -4% for some time.

China GNI per capita should be about 
2017 $8800
2018 $9300
2019 $9800   (about the current level of Malaysia
2020 $10200  (about current world average GNI per capita)
2021 $10800  
2022 $11500
2023 $12100  (At about World Bank high income definition)
2030 $16000  (about the current level of Uruguay)
2040 $22000 (about the current level of Saudi Arabia)
2050 $29000-32000  (about the current level of Spain, Italy and South Korea)

This would be in line with China getting around $20,000 GDP per capita by 2035 and around $30,000 per capita in todays dollars by 2050.

2. Sustainability. The Xi plan calls for a concentrated drive to eradicate poverty, as the increasing wealth gap resulting from rapid development is the enemy of long-term sustainability. In the five years since the 18th Party Congress, at least 60 million people were lifted out of poverty. If such a rate is sustained, the tens of millions currently living below the poverty line will all be lifted out of poverty in only a few years.

The environment is, of course, the other threat to sustainability. The Xi plan maps out major structural changes to the economy and energy usage and envisions a substantially cleaner environment in two decades.

3. Expansion. The Belt and Road Initiative is larger than the Marshall Plan both in size and geography. China will export its infrastructure-led economic development to a vast number of developing and developed countries.

By 2050, the Belt and Road region aims to contribute 80 per cent of global GDP growth, and advance three billion more people into the middle class.

4. Identity. Xi is emphasizing the importance of Chinese traditional culture.

Xi Jinping said the PLA must fully modernize by 2035, having phased out the last of its antiquated equipment. The PLA must adopt the latest in information warfare technology, boosting the PLA’s ability to share data across the armed services. By 2050, the PLA must become a “top ranked” military, which means rough parity with the United States military.

8 thoughts on “China details plans through 2050 – health, AI, sharing economy and more”

  1. If he only succeeds in only half of his plans, Xi will be the most important renaissance figure of the 21st century.

    • They are

      “The big increase in lawsuits against the government stems from a change, introduced in 2015, which makes the filing of suits purely a bureaucratic exercise. So long as litigants submit all the paperwork, courts must agree to hear their cases. Previously they could reject them without giving a proper explanation. Chen Ding, a former prosecutor in China who now teaches at the University of Sheffield, says this reform has dovetailed with Mr Xi’s anti-corruption campaign, which has discouraged judges from taking bribes. “The cost of using the formal legal system has been driven down,” she says.

      Proceedings are also becoming more transparent. Since 2014 all courts have been required to upload their decisions to a website run by the Supreme People’s Court. At the last count there were more than 34m cases on the website, with thousands added every day. Some of them are also live-streamed online, giving the public a chance to peer into courtrooms around the country.

      There are, unsurprisingly, limits to this openness. Courts have been told to refrain from publishing so-called “inappropriate decisions”, a category that includes juvenile crimes but also state secrets. Roughly 40% of cases, including many with political undertones, remain inaccessible. Also absent from the record is the guidance that judges receive from the party committees that oversee their work.

      Nevertheless, the picture that emerges from the flurry of reforms is of a Chinese legal system becoming more professional and fairer when it comes to strictly commercial disputes and basic administrative problems. There is no contradiction between this trend and the government’s increasing readiness to use the law to lock up dissidents. Both are aimed at reinforcing the party’s grip. A well-functioning court system is essential for the health of the economy. Giving aggrieved citizens outlets to challenge the government without resorting to protest is good for social stability. As for cases with wider political ramifications, submitting them to impartial justice is simply too big a risk, the party reckons.”

    • Except how does a country “save for the future”?
      By building income producing assets and infrastructure.

  2. It looks as if China has the same bright shining future that the USSR had in the mid 1980s. Declarations and 20 year plans, that oughta do it!

    • Except that USSR in the 80s was crippled by socialism, while China is pragmatic and thus embraces capitalism where it makes sense.

      • China embraces capitalism like a college kid embraces a new credit card. The fun doesn’t start until you have to make payments.

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