Spacex Point to Point trip market

Spacex’s Elon Musk talked about flying to different points on the Earth in his BFR rocket presentation.

Spacex would be able to transport people at 18,000 mph and make
5000 miles trips in 20 minutes (regularly 10 hours) and
8000-9000 miles trips in 30 minutes (regularly 12-14 hours) and
10,000-11,000 mile trips in 40 minutes (18 hours or more with connections).

In 2018, there will be about 4 billion airline passengers. About 2% fly first class on international routes. This is about 80 million first class seat flights per year.

Flights are growing at 2-4% per year.

If Spacex were to get launch costs down to $4-8 million and were able to move 500 passengers at a time for $10,000 to 20,000 per person, they might capture 20% of the first class market.

16 million passengers per year would be 32,000 full flights. This would be 80-90 flights per day.
Spacex would have to establish regular daily or three times weekly routes between heavily trafficked locations.
There would also be revenue from rapid package delivery.

All of Spacex longer flights would be sub-orbital trips.

Spacex will also be able to create new markets exclusively for sub-orbital, orbital, lunar and other space tourism.

In a Reddit interview, Elon indicated that Spacex will have to prove the Spacex BFR to be as safe or safer than passenger jets to develop the point to point market.

About 20% of flights are international long haul.

The private jet market has about 400,000 flights per year.

There are about 200,000 people with over $30 million in net worth and 1.4 million with over $5 million in net worth.

There were 20 Concorde supersonic jets and tickets cost about double first class. First class tickets now tend to cost in the range of $10,000 to 20,000.