7% GDP growth in Vietnam, Philippines start of a fintech-AI-reform powered long World Economic Boom

There could finally be return to a global economic boom (GDP growth over 4%) similar to the PC and internet boom of the 1990s and early 2000s. The Boom years of the 1960s and early 1970s at over 5% global GDP growth could also be possible.

This would be seen as coming true if 2018 and 2019 achieve solidly over 4% world economic growth versus the low 3% GDP growth of the last decade.

The Philippines’ had 6.9% GDP growth in the 3rd quarter. This was second to that of Vietnam’s 7.46%, but faster than Indonesia’s 5.06% and Singapore’s 4.6%. It was also faster than China’s 6.8%.

The Philippines aims to reach 7% to 8% growth annually over the next 6 years, with an P8.4-trillion infrastructure plan until 2022 and a tax reform proposal pending at the Senate.

Goldman Sachs is predicted a stronger world economy in 2018

Goldman Sachs is predicting the global economy will grow at 4 percent on a real gross-domestic-product basis because of several factors.

India forecasted to have strong growth through 2027 if digitization is successful

Morgan Stanley forecasts India’s GDP to reach $6 trillion in 2027 as a result of its digitization drive. That would make India the third-largest economy in the world, behind the U.S. and China, which recorded $18.5 trillion and $11.2 trillion in GDP, respectively, last year.

Digitization also paves the ways for the country’s equity market to become one of the world’s five largest, with a market capitalization of $6.1 trillion.

India’s problem was that most lending that occurred in the formal sector went to large corporations or mortgages as banks did not have access to data on individuals or small and medium enterprises (SMEs) that wanted to take out loans.

As the adoption of digitization improves, tracking the credit history of individuals or SMEs is expected to become simpler and that’s likely to give a boost to the economy.

“[T]hat will allow banks to be able to lend much more effectively, so the credit will flow to the right part of the economy,” Agarwal said.

A India Digitization boom that boosts individual lending can be replicated in other parts of Asia, Africa and developing world

If India has a long boom from digitization and effective individual lending, then a similar boost from new blockchain finance and other fintech innovations could be applied in other developing countries.

Deep learning could be worth $17 trillion to the world economy by 2030. As deep learning advances, it should automate and improve technology, transportation, manufacturing, healthcare, finance, and more.

Digital Finance could add 6% to world GDP by 2025 which would be about 0.7% per year to GDP growth for 8 years. This GDP growth would also likely continue.

6 thoughts on “7% GDP growth in Vietnam, Philippines start of a fintech-AI-reform powered long World Economic Boom”

  1. Remittances from overseas Filipino workers provide a lot to the Filipino economy. That country is a mess and can only go upward. One of its largest exports is immigrant wives like mine. Hope she sticks around for awhile, because she still has a soft spot for that hot sweaty mess of a place that 100M call home. Country has the land area of Oregon and 100M people; it is fragmented into so many different islands, it will never be able to integrate in a modern way. They will find a Filipino solution instead (i.e. remain a mess). US got lucky when they asked for independence; like a coyote date telling you she is “moving on” because she “isn’t feeling it.”

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    • You, too? The stats say that American-Filipino marriages are, on average, more stable than American-American marriages. I’ve seen a couple of them fail in my circle of friends, usually very quickly, most of them seem to have been permanent.

      Me and my wife just celebrated our 11th anniversary, still happily married.

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      • Quite right; As long as one person remains alive, they can always go down hill. There are a lot of nations worse off than the Philippines.

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    • I co-owned some businesses over there. Local competitors didn’t like facing a well capitalized rival under American mgmnt. Got the government to force us to eventually close.

      Reply

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