China is requiring automakers (making over 30,000 cars per year) to make zero- and low-emission vehicles- of at least 10 percent starting in 2019, rising to 12 percent in 2020.
Car makers that do not meet those targets must buy credits or face fines.
The targets look achievable for the industry as a whole, McKerracher said. Considering the credit structure, 12 percent in 2020 would translate to about 4 percent to 5 percent of actual vehicle sales.
A spokeswoman for France’s PSA Group said the delay was good news but that the company was fully prepared to meet the quotas regardless. Obtaining an energy score of at least 10 percent in 2019 can be achieved if 2.5 percent of PSA’s Chinese production is electric.
China going from electric cars being 2% of new cars sold to 20% in 2025 to possibly 100% in 2030
In October 2017, 2% of new cars sold in China were electric cars.
Volkswagen, which has a large footprint in the market and sells more vehicles in China than in Europe, has said it will offer 30 electric models by 2025, but the first of those won’t hit the market until 2020.
China is calling for the production of 2 million electric vehicles (EVs) a year by 2020, and 7 million a year by 2025. By 2025, electric vehicles would be 20% of total new car production for China.
China’s government said it was working on a timetable to phase out fossil-fuel powered vehicles. It is probable that China will pick 2030.
China Leading Electric Car maker BAIC will export electric cars to USA and Canada in 2018
Yang Nanhua, director general of BAIC in Mexico, said the plan would go into action “unless something drastic happens with the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).”
BAIC would bring four new models into Mexico in 2018, including an electric vehicle with a range of up to 200 km
October, 2017 – 66,000 electric cars sold in China which is 4 times the North American monthly level
China had 66,000 electric cars sold in October, 2017.
Globally 123,000 plug in electric cars were sold in September, 2017. October global sales are not yet tabulated.
It seems likely that China has over half of the global electric car sales. The top model in China was the BAIC EC-Series. 11,315 EC-Series registered in October.
The little EV is a success with a trendy design, improved specs (now with 200 km of range), and competitive pricing (~$22,000).
China’s electric vehicle sales have now passed 2% of all car sales. The US electric cars are at 1% of overall car sales.
China electric car company BYD plans to increase sales by 10X by 2025 through expansion and diversification
BYD will conduct a drastic restructuring to form a new industry chain, a move designed to chase rapid growth in the coming eight years.
BYD’s different divisions including passenger vehicle, commercial vehicle, battery and electronics will be developed into various “clusters of businesses,” he added. “In 2025, our aim is to achieve sales of 1 trillion yuan.”
China could require all cars to be completely electrified by 2030.
Xu Heyi, chairman of carmaker BAIC Group, forecast that electric-vehicle production in China could reach a million units next year.
SOURCES – China Automotive Ministry, China Daily, Bloomberg, South China Morning Post, Cleantechnica, InsideEVs
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.