Firmer currency and solid growth means China could pass $10,000 per capita GDP in 2019

Morgan Stanley had a ten year forecast where the mid-range had China surpassing the World Bank High income level in 2027.

At the end of 2016, the exchange was 6.92 CNY to one US dollar. Currently the exchange rate is 6.60 CNY to one US dollar.

China’s 2017 GDP is tracking to about 82.5 trillion yuan.

This would be US$12.5 trillion. Which with a population of 1.41 billion would be a per capita GDP of $8,870.

This would nearly be at the bullish case level of the Morgan Stanley projection for 2018 instead of 2017.

Several forecasts are for the exchange rate to be 6.4 in 2018 and around 6.2 in 2019.

The forecasts for GDP growth for 2018 is projected at 6.9% and 6.8% for 2019.

The combinations would put China’s per capita GDP at about $9800 in 2018 and $10800 in 2019. China would then pass the World Bank high income level by 2021.

This would China on a per capita basis at the projected levels of Malaysia and Turkey in 2020, 2021.

If as predicted the currency was firmer and economic performance was solid then China’s overall economy would surpass the US economy in 2024 on an exchange rate basis.