The center released its third Medium-Term Asian Economic Forecast for 2017 through 2030. The report, titled “Digital Asia 5.0 — Innovation changes economic power relationship,” puts the Philippines on track to log 6.4% real GDP growth in 2030, with India expected to post a 5.2% rate and Vietnam likely to record 5% expansion that year.
China, whose 6.7% growth rate in 2016 was nearly the same as India’s, is projected to slow to 2.8% in 2030, despite high productivity.
The report gauges countries’ growth prospects amid the spread of digital technology, using metrics including labor contributions, investment levels and productivity, which is affected by infrastructure quality and other factors.
The Philippines’ productivity growth rate is low, its capital stock is swelling by 6-8% a year. After the Philippines, India and Vietnam are also seeing brisk capital stock growth.
India has a relatively large contribution of labor input to GDP growth. The number of people employed in India is increasing as the population expands, and the average length of education, in terms of years, is also increasing rapidly.
The ASEAN5’s growth rate in 2030 is projected at 4.4% — higher than the NIEs (1.9%), China, Japan (0.5%) and the U.S. (2.5%). This will make it a major growth engine next to India. In addition to the Philippines and Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand are all projected to post growth rates of 3-4%, beating China.
Nextbigfuture had published GDP projections out 2030 a couple of weeks ago
Nextbigfuture forecast was more optimistic about China. Expecting China’s economy to the USA by 2026. The Japan Center for Economic Research thinks China will only get to 80% of the US economy by 2030.
The projection were about the same for India. Both expected India to pass Japan around 2027 or 2028.