Russian decline in world power will accelerate over the 2020s

Even though Russia has population of 144 million and has the legacy of the Soviet nuclear program and military technology. However a country with GDP comparable to that of Australia cannot afford to be a superpower, fight a protracted war in Syria, fight in the Ukraine and develop its own stealth fighter and other equipment to match the United States. Even with the US overpaying for military equipment and programs.

Westerns analysts have concluded that Russia’s fifth-generation Sukhoi Su-57 stealth fighter is unlikely to enter operational service before 2027. Postponements, cost-overruns and research and development-related problems mar the project.

India needed to invest in a version of the jet for it to be viable. Russia has to support their military projects with sales and joint technological development with India and China and other countries. This is the approach that Russia needs for the next ten years or so.

China is already not needing much of Russia’s military technology. There are a few areas like jet engines and materials where Russian technology is helpful.
India will probably not need Russia military technology in about ten years.

Lower costs for solar power, wind and batteries will continue to put price pressure on oil. Oil and natural gas are the main part of Russia’s economy. If Oil were to head to $10 per barrel then Russia’s GDP could drop 30% and Russia would be at the population and GDP of Mexico in 2022.

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