Super technology will transform the world of 2020 to 2050

The history of technology adoption saw the main foundation of the modern world adopted in the United States in a transformation from 1905 to 1930.

During those years, the telephone, car, electricity and radio went from 0 to 10% adoption to 40-70% adoption.

1930 to 1980 mainly saw the transformation of the home with appliances and the scaling up of energy usage. We had electricity in 1930 but the US was using ten times less than in 1980.

Then from 1980 to 2005 was the adoption of the computer, internet and cellphone.

2005 to 2020 we have the adoption of the smartphone and social media.

Electric, self driving and ridesharing

Electric cars – still less than one percent now but will be almost all new cars and trucks by 2030
Self driving and Ridesharing – Self driving and ridesharing will make transportation 2 to 4 times cheaper. This will have mass adoption as well.

Low cost airplane tickets, supersonic and hypersonic transportation

Transcontinental and transoceanic airplane tickets will be mostly under $100 per ride. There will be $5000+ tickets for supersonic and then later hypersonic transportation.

Lower cost energy

The electric car transformation and mainstream solar and batteries will be part of a wave of lower cost energy and transportation.

There is the lowering cost of energy from progress in solar and batteries.

However, the other energy technologies will not disappear quite as quickly as some expect.

Shale fields will increasingly be developed using advanced automation, mobile computing, robotics, and industrial drones. In 2016, barely 10 percent of projects use fully automated drilling and pressure-control systems. Big Data can make oil fracking 4 times more efficient. Sensors and precise modeling could mean virtually no bad or unproductive wells. This could enable oil to profitable at $5-10 per barrel.

China is making cheap, simple and safe heat only nuclear reactors which could provide home and office heating in northern cities for less cost than coal.

Getting rid of coal seems certain by 2050. This is actually far more difficult than most people think. Especially on a global basis.

There are possibilities for natural gas to generate lime at the same time in order for the processes to be removing CO2 from the atmostphere.

Molten salt nuclear reactors have several projects which could enable costs that a little to a lot cheaper than coal and natural gas.

China has two molten salt reactor projects.
Terrestrial Energy should have its first full scale reactor around 2025.
Thorcon could make molten salt reactors that are lower cost than coal for Indonesia and other asian countries starting around 2025 as well.

Space will be huge

Space Mining and Industrialization will happen and I think the Big Falcon Rocket will be a success. The tens of thousands of internet satellites will be launched and will be successful.

How big and how much change from Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain and cryptocurrency

The question is not whether Artificial Intelligence, Blockchain and cryptocurrency will be bigger over the next few years.

Useful non-general intelligence AI is exploding now.

Chances for million+ qubit quantum computers with error correction

Scaling to millions of non-error corrected qubits will definitely be doable. The question is whether those non-error corrected systems will be extremely useful for quantum simulation and other applications.

Scaling to millions of error corrected qubits has recently had one published design. Billions of dollars in funding seems certain.

Transformative quantum computers seems certain. The uncertainty is the timeframe, programming and algorithms where the utility will be unlocked.

Chances for transformative Nuclear fusion

There is a two laser nuclear fusion process which might be able to have costs 4 times lower than coal. The first prototype could be created .

Genetic engineering and other biotechnology will succeed in curing many diseases

Cancers, alzheimers, heart disease seem like conditions that will be basically cured. Effective longevity treatments like removing senescent cells will occur.

Some aspects of aging will be reversed. There is a trial of aging reversal in dogs over the next few years.


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