China’s quarterly GDP numbers for 2016 and 2017 suggest that the soon to be released Q4 2017 GDP number will be about 22.5 trillion RMB. China leadership has already indicated the fourth quarter has come in with strong economic performance and that the 2017 GDP was 6.9%.
The trends for increasing for quarter to quarter and for larger fourth quarters suggests at least 2.23 trillion RMB more than Q3 2017. This would put it at 23.4 trillion RMB for Q4 2017. But I think it will come in at 2.33 trillion RMB for Q4 which would be a total of 23.5 trillion RMB for Q4 2017.
This would be 59.3 trillion for the first three quarters plus 22.5 trillion for the last quarter of 2017 for a total of 82.7 trillion RMB for 2017.
The current exchange rate is 6.4 RMB to 1 USD. So China’s nominal GDP would be US$12.9 trillion. Once Hong Kong ($332 billion) and Macau ($55 billion) are added this would be $13.3 trillion.
China combined with Hong Kong and Macau will crack the $10,000 per capita income level early in 2018.
US GDP for 2017 is about $19.7 trillion.
China is about 67.5% of the US economy.
Q4 2017 Q4 2016 21.12813 Q4 2015 19.2852 Q3 2017 21.1798 Q3 2016 19.05295 Q3 2015 17.67104 Q2 2017 20.0807 Q2 2016 18.07437 Q2 2015 16.85030 Q1 2017 18.0682 Q1 2016 16.15727 Q1 2015 15.09867
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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