China’s GDP was over 82.71 trillion yuan [$12.84 trillion] in 2017. The Exchange rate was 6.45 at the end of 2017.
The Economist the World in 2018 had projected China’s 2018 nominal GDP to be 12.73 trillion. This would require the exchange rate to weaken against the US dollar more than cancel out 6.8% GDP growth. This will not happen. Most forecasts are for the yuan to strengthen for the next two years.
Macau was at $55 billion in 2017.
China had 6.9% GDP growth in 2017 and the forecasts are for 6.8% in 2018 and 6.4% in 2019. With yuan exchange rates of 6.2 at the end of 2018 and 6.0 at the end of 2019. China’s inflation is about 1.5 to 2.0%.
China’s GDP would be projected as the following
Year GDP in RMB Exchange Nominal GDP GDP with HK and Macau 2018 90.0 trillion 6.2 14.54 trillion 14.94 trillion 2019 98 trillion 6.0 16.2 trillion 16.6 trillion 2020 108 trillion 6.0 18.0 trillion 18.5 trillion
From 2023 to 2027, the difference in the size of US and China economy will be plus or minus 10%. This will be within possible exchange rate fluctuations.
Major problems in the country’s economy include low investment efficiency, heavy reliance on real estate investment and low research and development input, Wang Jun, chief economist at Zhengzhou-based Zhongyuan Bank said.
“Our country’s investment efficiency declines year by year. Currently, 1 yuan of GDP growth requires an increased investment of 6.9 yuan, which is much lower than that of developed countries. This figure is also much lower than the level of 4.0 yuan from 1998-2007 in China,” Li Wei, director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said at a forum in Beijing on January 13.
Li said that China’s GDP per capita is only about 14 percent of the level in the US and 25 percent of the level in the EU.
The latest data from the World Bank showed that research and development expenditure took up 2.07 percent of GDP in China in 2015, compared with 2.79 percent in the US.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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