China – US economies will be within 10% currency fluctuations from 2022-2027

by

China’s GDP was over 82.71 trillion yuan [$12.84 trillion] in 2017. The Exchange rate was 6.45 at the end of 2017.

A previous Nextbigfuture article had an error and divided 83.8 trillion yuan by the exchange rate. This has been corrected.

The Economist the World in 2018 had projected China’s 2018 nominal GDP to be 12.73 trillion. This would require the exchange rate to weaken against the US dollar more than cancel out 6.8% GDP growth. This will not happen. Most forecasts are for the yuan to strengthen for the next two years.

Hong Kong ‘s GDP was $333 billion in 2017 (3.7% growth from $320.9 billion in 2016).

Macau was at $55 billion in 2017.

China had 6.9% GDP growth in 2017 and the forecasts are for 6.8% in 2018 and 6.4% in 2019. With yuan exchange rates of 6.2 at the end of 2018 and 6.0 at the end of 2019. China’s inflation is about 1.5 to 2.0%.

China’s GDP would be projected as the following

Year    GDP in RMB           Exchange   Nominal GDP      GDP with HK and Macau
2018    90.0 trillion        6.2        14.54 trillion   14.94 trillion
2019    98 trillion          6.0        16.2 trillion    16.6 trillion
2020    108 trillion         6.0        18.0 trillion    18.5 trillion

From 2023 to 2027, the difference in the size of US and China economy will be plus or minus 10%. This will be within possible exchange rate fluctuations.

Major problems in the country’s economy include low investment efficiency, heavy reliance on real estate investment and low research and development input, Wang Jun, chief economist at Zhengzhou-based Zhongyuan Bank said.

“Our country’s investment efficiency declines year by year. Currently, 1 yuan of GDP growth requires an increased investment of 6.9 yuan, which is much lower than that of developed countries. This figure is also much lower than the level of 4.0 yuan from 1998-2007 in China,” Li Wei, director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said at a forum in Beijing on January 13.

Li said that China’s GDP per capita is only about 14 percent of the level in the US and 25 percent of the level in the EU.

The latest data from the World Bank showed that research and development expenditure took up 2.07 percent of GDP in China in 2015, compared with 2.79 percent in the US.