The Future of Asia is ultimately about AI, other advanced tech and economics

Hugh White makes the case that America’s influence is decreasing in Asia and China is on the eventual but inevitable path to dominating Asia.

Others make the case that the USA still has strategic options.

Nextbigfuture believes the ultimate Future of Asia and the world is about AI, other advanced technology and economics.

The US would definitely benefit by engaging more with allies like Japan, India, South Korea, ASEAN and Australia.

Now to 2029

China is currently at 120% of the US economy on a PPP basis and 66% of the US economy on an exchange rated basis now. China will edge closer on an exchange rated basis and then sometime in the mid to late 2020s China should pass the US economy on an exchange rated basis.

China will still be spending less on its military and China’s military will still be inferior to the USA. However, already China’s military is such that while the US can defeat China, the cost of the war is more than the US is willing to commit.

The US can and will be providing F35s to Japan and South Korea. This will enable Japan and South Korea to upgrade their helicopter carriers to aircraft carriers with 9 to 20 fighter jets.

The US will be more concerned with North Korea and the continuing problems with the middle east and terrorism than with what happens in the South China Sea or with Taiwan.

The Southeast Asian countries are accepting that China will get most of the South China Sea and Taiwan has a closer economic relationship and dependence on China than Canada does with the USA.

India and ASEAN countries will get economically stronger.

2030-2050 – ultimately it is about the advanced technology and economy

India and ASEAN will become economically competitive with China. Europe will continue to shrink its share of the world economy.

A stronger factor is how well each country or region is managing its advanced technology.

How good are the Artificial Intelligence and robotics capabilities?
How good is the molecular nanotechnology and biotech and antiaging?
How good is the space capabilities?

Right now and for the next few decades the US has a continuing big and growing advantage with space because of SpaceX.

The US has problems because of the military-industrial corruption and waste which causes military equipment to be over-priced by two to ten times.


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