Others make the case that the USA still has strategic options.
Nextbigfuture believes the ultimate Future of Asia and the world is about AI, other advanced technology and economics.
The US would definitely benefit by engaging more with allies like Japan, India, South Korea, ASEAN and Australia.
Now to 2029
China is currently at 120% of the US economy on a PPP basis and 66% of the US economy on an exchange rated basis now. China will edge closer on an exchange rated basis and then sometime in the mid to late 2020s China should pass the US economy on an exchange rated basis.
China will still be spending less on its military and China’s military will still be inferior to the USA. However, already China’s military is such that while the US can defeat China, the cost of the war is more than the US is willing to commit.
The US can and will be providing F35s to Japan and South Korea. This will enable Japan and South Korea to upgrade their helicopter carriers to aircraft carriers with 9 to 20 fighter jets.
The US will be more concerned with North Korea and the continuing problems with the middle east and terrorism than with what happens in the South China Sea or with Taiwan.
The Southeast Asian countries are accepting that China will get most of the South China Sea and Taiwan has a closer economic relationship and dependence on China than Canada does with the USA.
India and ASEAN countries will get economically stronger.
2030-2050 – ultimately it is about the advanced technology and economy
India and ASEAN will become economically competitive with China. Europe will continue to shrink its share of the world economy.
A stronger factor is how well each country or region is managing its advanced technology.
How good are the Artificial Intelligence and robotics capabilities?
How good is the molecular nanotechnology and biotech and antiaging?
How good is the space capabilities?
Right now and for the next few decades the US has a continuing big and growing advantage with space because of SpaceX.
The US has problems because of the military-industrial corruption and waste which causes military equipment to be over-priced by two to ten times.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.