An all-out trade war between the US and China would seem like a problem for the USA.
A batch of Boeing orders would be replaced by Airbus. US auto and iPhone sales in China would suffer a setback, and US soybean and maize imports would be halted.
California wine can be replaced with European and Australian wine.
China can reduce the Hollywood movies that it allows into China. Chinese people want to watch Hollywood movies but the government would prefer to let fewer Hollywood movies into the country. The movies would eventually make it in via piracy.
In 2016, The Verge and other sources noted how Apple cannot build an IPhone without China but China can build smartphones with Google’s open source Android system.
Although recent leading rulings could impose costs on Android because of the Oracle ruling on Java.
The US and other countries needs China’s production of smartphone components as the basis for competitive value-added products.
There’s an asymmetry here that Mr. Trump seems unaware of. Apple can’t build an iPhone without China, but China can build hundreds of millions of devices approaching the iPhone’s quality without Apple’s help. China’s android phones makers are the 3rd, 4th and 5th place worldwide as of 2017-2018.
The president-elect has promised to bring manufacturing back to the States, but the only Apple product currently being made in the USA is the aged Mac Pro, which costs thousands of dollars, and Motorola’s failed experiment with the 2013 Moto X shows that smartphone assembly in the US is too costly to be viable.
How long would it take for the US to setup competitive robotic manufacturing of more components domestically?
The US can get some parts from South Korea instead of China. However, South Korea is Samsung which has issues.
Can the US set up competitive robotic manufacturing of computer and electronic and other components?
There are trends towards competitive low-cost robotic manufacturing.
The US as a policy or larger effort might be able to make the robotic factories over the next ten years. Much could be done with creating a competitive robotic supply chain over the next 5 years if there was sufficient motivations and incentives.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.