Venezuela oil collapse funds technology for US in 2050 to match Russia and Saudi Arabia combined production

Future growth in U.S. crude oil and natural gas production is projected to be driven by the development of tight oil and shale gas resources.

The outlook for domestic crude oil and natural gas production is highly sensitive to resource and technology assumptions. Higher oil prices now mean US oil frakkers can pump as much as they want and make more money to fund the development better oil technology.

If we assume that the Venezuela oil production collapse and OPEC production limitation agreement adds a $20 per barrel price premium. The US oil drillers are getting about $30-50 billion per year for profits and to fund the development of better oil technology.

Better technology will drive US frakking. This could lock in the high production scenario from the EIA where the US produces almost as much oil as the combined current oil production Russia and Saudi Arabia.

In the AEO2018 Reference case, domestic crude oil production increases over the next five years and then generally flattens after 2022, staying about 11 million to 12 million barrels per day (b/d) through 2050. Similarly, domestic dry natural gas production increases rapidly (more than 5% annually) through 2021 and then slows to an annual average growth rate of 1% through 2050, reaching 43.0 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) per year in 2050 in the Reference case.

In the Low Oil and Gas Resource and Technology case, domestic crude oil production decreases for most of the projection period, and dry natural gas production stays near 30 Tcf/year from 2018 through 2050.

EIA estimates Dec, 2017 Texas oil production to be at 3.93 million barrels per day. the Texas Railroad Commission has some incomplete data problems. Most likely, by late 2019, TRRC’s published production value for December 2017 will be about 3.93 million b/d, consistent with EIA’s most recent PSM estimates.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged about 16.8 million barrels per day during the week ending March 16, 2018, 410,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.5 million barrels per day, up by 4.9% from the same period last year.

The US is producing 10.4 million barrels per day of oil. This is up over 400,000 barrels per day versus the end of 2017.

Venezuela has had a drop in production of about 700,000 barrels per day versus production in 2016.

Venezuela’s drop in production and the OPEC agreement to limit production is supporting a higher oil price and enabling US oil producers to profitably develop improved technology to recover tight oil and shale gas resources.