Barclays analysts predicts that Venezuela’s oil production will average 1.43 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2018. This would be a decline of roughly 700,000 bpd from the 2017 average. In the second half of 2018, output averages just 1.35 million barrels per day.
Venezuela has a debt crisis.
There is the possibility of a sharper decline due to the creditors’ decision to attach assets, accelerated debt payments, or a further escalation of political tensions. Venezuela’s production might fall to only 1 million barrels per day.
Sudden drops in Venezuelan production could cause oil price spikes and other OPEC members and Russia could cheat on the deal to cut production. There could also be more production from shale oil producers in the USA.