The Iranian rocket attack and Israel response could be the first skirmishes in a potential war between Israel and Iran that could be big.
It could involve Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
It could spread across Syria and Lebanon. Israeli cities would be hit, as might strategic targets in Iran. In its initial stages, it would be Israeli air power against the long-range missile forces of Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah.
Over recent months, the Israelis say, a variety of Iranian installations have been established in Syria: weapons stores, barracks, air defenses and so on.
The immediate tensions stem from an Israeli air strike on what they claimed was an Iranian drone facility at the so-called T-4 air base, near Palmyra, on 9 April, which reportedly killed several Iranian military advisers.
Iran vowed to respond and since then there have been sporadic incidents that appear to be Israeli efforts to thwart just such a response.
There was an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) air strike on an underground missile depot where the explosion was so large it registered on earthquake-monitoring systems. And just a few days ago, Israel claimed it struck at missiles that were being readied to be launched.
Israel – Iran War
Hillel Frisch at the Jerusalem Post provides his insights into the possible Israel – Iran War.
Israel will not permit Syria to be turned into an Iranian forward base and a manufacturing center for precision-guided missiles.
Iran is equally committed to its objectives – turning Syria into a forward-based of direct Iranian operations and a manufacturing center for precision-guided missiles.
Iran could directly attack Israel or alternatively activate its proxy Hezbollah.
Hezbollah draws its ranks from a small community of less than two million people. Demographic data also shows that the birth rate of the Shi’ites in Lebanon and Iran has plummeted, reaching in 2004 a “European” fertility rate – that is, below replacement rate. New recruits will be increasingly coming from four-member families, for which loss of life is particularly harsh.
Hezbollah is war-weary.
Iran, then, will probably attack directly.
It will be a war mainly with missiles from Iran and Hezbollah versus Israel’s air force.
Iran gets 40% of government expenditures and around half of Iran’s foreign reserves from oil and gas. The port of Bandar Abbas on Iran’s southern tip is responsible for 90% of its container trade. The goods brought in by container represent only 15% to 20% of total trade, but they are the goods that make the difference between the 21st and 19th centuries as far as most Iranians are concerned.
Israel might attack airports in Lebanon, Syria and even Iraq to prevent the movement of Iranian troops and equipment.