Former Pentagon Under Secretary of Defense for acquisition tech and logistics John Young told CNBC in February that no one can compete with even Falcon Heavy, let alone BFR.
“Musk said it’s ‘game over,’ and I [John Young] believe that’s true.”
Nextbigfuture analysis is that SpaceX has built a lead that will take 15 years for competitors to match with the Falcon 9 Block 5 and the Falcon Heavy. Around 2028, China might start test flights something approaching the Falcon 9 block 5 with the Long March 8.
Blue Origin could start testing its New Glenn Rocket in 2020. It will take Blue Origin at least 2-3 years to work out its tests for the new Glenn Rocket. A lot has to go right for Blue Origin which has not gone to orbit yet.
If SpaceX delivers the fully reusable SpaceX BFR rocket for launching 150 tons into space at a cost of $10-30 million per launch by 2023, then it could be 2035 before any nation or company can match it. It would take $10-30 billion to develop such a competing system. SpaceX will be sucking up all of the commercial launches from any potential competitor.
China will be willing to spend the money to do it even without non-Government launches.
How long would other companies be willing to try to catch up while starved of commercial launches?
Which governments or military buyers would be willing to fund development of competitors?
To catch up competition will have to actually get faster than SpaceX.
Which competitors could adjust their systems and models to match the pace of SpaceX development?
Wang is a prolific business-oriented writer of emerging and disruptive technologies. He is known for insightful articles that combine business and technical analysis that catches the attention of the general public and is also useful for those in the industries. He is the sole author and writer of nextbigfuture.com
, the top online science blog. He is also involved in angel investing and raising funds for breakthrough technology startup companies.
He gave the recent keynote presentation at Monte Jade event with a talk entitled the Future for You. He gave an annual update on molecular nanotechnology at Singularity University on nanotechnology, gave a TEDX talk on energy, and advises USC ASTE 527 (advanced space projects program). He has been interviewed for radio, professional organizations. podcasts and corporate events. He was recently interviewed by the radio program Steel on Steel on satellites and high altitude balloons that will track all movement in many parts of the USA.
He fundraises for various high impact technology companies and has worked in computer technology, insurance, healthcare and with corporate finance.
He has substantial familiarity with a broad range of breakthrough technologies like age reversal and antiaging, quantum computers, artificial intelligence, ocean tech, agtech, nuclear fission, advanced nuclear fission, space propulsion, satellites, imaging, molecular nanotechnology, biotechnology, medicine, blockchain, crypto and many other areas.