Iran weakening with big protests, economic problems and Israel could be building up to attack

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Israel is investing more than $2 billion for new weapons for a possible attack against Iran.

They are getting a new long-range missile and new refueling aircraft.

A new IAI/IMI Rampage missile has about 150-kilometer range and is a fire and forget missile.

There are reports by the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida that Israeli F-35 fighter jets entered Iranian airspace over the past month.

Iran denied this happened but replaced the General in charge of Iran’s air defense days later.


Israel has also be hitting Iran’s forces in Syria

Protests and a weak economy in Iran

The Iran rial appears to be 50% weaker over the last weeks and is trading about 85000-90000 to one US dollar. In April it was 57500 rial to one US dollar and even at the beginning of June it was about 65000 rial to one US dollar.

Iran is not economically stable.

UPDATE – Here is a new NextBigfuture article about Iran’s perpetually high misery index (inflation 12% + Unemployment 10% = 22% Misery index)

There are protests of bazaar traders and protests from truck drivers, teachers, laborers, and protests about pollution and the lack of water.

It is reported that the current protests are the largest since 2012. Trump’s decision in early May to withdraw from the deal that curbed the Iranian nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions has resulted in a contraction of foreign investments in Iran and in a massive devaluation of the country’s local currency, the rial.

Russia working with Saudi Arabia on Oil

Money talks for Russia. Iran may be Russia’s ally in the Syrian conflict but Russia is working with Saudi Arabia on oil.

Russia and Saudi Arabia are world’s two biggest oil exporters. They agreed in May to engineer a sizeable increase in oil output.

OPEC last week announced a 1 million bpd oil production increase to ease prices that have shot above $70 a barrel.

Iran is getting lower oil to market because of US sanctions and Venezuela oil industry continues to fall apart. Canada’s oil sands also had some problems. Canada’s syncrude plant shutdown because of transformer and power problems. This is about 350,000 barrels per day.