China investment in nuclear plants is projected to increase by 24% in the next 12 years – faster than investment in natural gas and renewables under the Sustainable Development Plan.
China’s 58GW nuclear target will likely slip to 2022. China had talked about a target of 150GWe of nuclear power in 2030. However, 115 GWe or perhaps more should be achievable in 2030.
Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017 and forecasts to renewable utility costs in 2020. (IRENA – International Renewable Energy Agency)
The potential 0.05 cents per kwh is the $50 per Megawatt hour cost that China has for nuclear power.
The US Energy Information Administration has levelized cost of ownership for US power being completed in 2022. US nuclear power is two times or more the cost of China’s nuclear power.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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It looks like only China can do nuclear power properly these days. Still I’m not amused by their deployment rate. China’s still overwhelmingly coal powered and nuclear power only accounts for a measly 2% of electricity production.
It looks like only China can do nuclear power properly these days. Still I’m not amused by their deployment rate.China’s still overwhelmingly coal powered and nuclear power only accounts for a measly 2{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of electricity production.
OMG, the robotic buildings-kill-birds response! We need buildings. We don’t need windmills, because they waste ~2000 tons of raw materiel for every initial MW-year. And all those materials are processed via fossil fuels — know how steel is made? And, the result of those millions of tons of wasted materials is, for example… https://tinyurl.com/y88f57mz https://tinyurl.com/y9zhpe5r And, the steel from just one 5MW top-line windmill can make the world’s largest nuclear reactor vessel capable of 1000 times the power, 24/7 for decades. Toss in the materials for a dozen more windmills and we have the entire nuclear plant serving >1,000,000 homes with clean energy, 24/7 for decades… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zc7rRPrA7rg A typical nuclear plant makes juice for 2.7-3.6 cents per kWHr, and can do things no renewable’ can — run every day, and more… “Planned Maintenance at Diablo Canyon Unit 2 Delayed to Meet State Energy Needs During Heat Wave” 9 Sep. 2015, CAISO: “Requests Both Units Operate at Full Power”. http://tinyurl.com/zha8dba Ask a wind/solar ‘farm’ to operate when there’s no sun/wind, eh? ;] It seems this site omits links. So much for factual discussion. ;]
Yes, wind turbines kill birds, but you’ve been misled about how serious the problem is, here are some things that kill more birds: Cats – 400 million Buildings – 303 million Cars – 200 million Poison – 72 million Electrical line collisions – 25 million Communication tower collisions 6.5 million Electrical line electrocution – 5.4 million Oil Pits – 750,000 Wind Turbines – 174,000 US Fish and Wildlife: “Threats to Birds: Migratory Birds Mortality“ https://www.fws.gov/birds/bird-enthusiasts/threats-to-birds.php
Your information is old. And so are the prices quoted in this article. Current costs are far below what this article claims. In the US, unsubsidized wind energy now costs 3-4 cents/kWh. NextEra, the second largest utility in the US, expects to see unsubsidized wind prices of 2-3 cents/kWh and 3-4 cents/kWh for solar in 2020+. By comparison the average fuel cost for coal last year was 3.8 cents per kWh. The cost of solar and wind falls 5-20% every single year, and will continue to see sharp drops in cost for at least another decade. The cost of solar fell 22% in 2016 alone. Unsubsidized wind power in Brazil at 2.0 cents / kWh “Wind Power Cheaper Than Ever in Brazil, Almost as Low as Mexico” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-04/wind-power-cheaper-than-ever-in-brazil-almost-as-low-as-mexico ===== Unsubsidized wind power in Canada at 2.5 cents / kWh “Alberta’s Renewable Electricity Program attracts lowest renewable pricing in Canada” https://www.aeso.ca/assets/Uploads/REP-Infographic.pdf ==== Solar power for Austin, TX for 2.5 cents/kWh: “Austin Energy solar PPA could be lowest-priced in US, analysts say” https://www.utilitydive.com/news/austin-energy-solar-ppa-could-be-lowest-priced-in-us-analysts-say/513453/ ===== Unsubsidized solar and wind are below 2 cents / kWh in Mexico: “Mexico’s power auction pre-selects 16 bids with average price of $20.57/MWh and 2.56 GW of combined capacity” https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/11/16/mexicos-power-auction-pre-selects-16-bids-with-average-price-of-20-57mwh-and-2-56-gw-of-combined-capacity/ ===== “Chilean solar cost down 26%, as important as Saudi Arabia at 1.79¢/kWh” https://electrek.co/2017/11/08/chilean-solar-down-26-as-important-as-saudi-arabia-at-1-79¢-kwh/
Of course. ‘Renewables’ are of no use for utility-grade power. They are, in fact, unethical to propose/construct for such — a sad example… https://tinyurl.com/y83g6htx And polluting from birth to death: http://tinyurl.com/ycg32mbt https://mobile.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/world/asia/chinese-protesters-accuse-solar-panel-plant-of-pollution.html?referer https://asiancorrespondent.com/2011/05/green-deaths-the-forgotten-dangers-of-solar-panels/#f7OIyj15lLhWWbp4.97 https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/9209-The-bottleneck-of-a-low-carbon-future https://tinyurl.com/n3frxms …just a sample of ‘renewable’ reality. — Dr. A. Cannara 650 400 3071
OMG the robotic buildings-kill-birds response! We need buildings. We don’t need windmills because they waste ~2000 tons of raw materiel for every initial MW-year. And all those materials are processed via fossil fuels — know how steel is made? And the result of those millions of tons of wasted materials is for example…https://tinyurl.com/y88f57mz https://tinyurl.com/y9zhpe5r And the steel from just one 5MW top-line windmill can make the world’s largest nuclear reactor vessel capable of 1000 times the power 24/7 for decades. Toss in the materials for a dozen more windmills and we have the entire nuclear plant serving >1000000 homes with clean energy 24/7 for decades… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zc7rRPrA7rgA typical nuclear plant makes juice for 2.7-3.6 cents per kWHr and can do things no renewable’ can — run every day and more…“Planned Maintenance at Diablo Canyon Unit 2 Delayed to Meet State EnergyNeeds During Heat Wave” 9 Sep. 2015 CAISO: “Requests Both Units Operate at FullPower”. http://tinyurl.com/zha8dbaAsk a wind/solar ‘farm’ to operate when there’s no sun/wind eh? ;]It seems this site omits links. So much for factual discussion. ;]”
Yes wind turbines kill birds but you’ve been misled about how serious the problem is here are some things that kill more birds: Cats – 400 millionBuildings – 303 millionCars – 200 millionPoison – 72 millionElectrical line collisions – 25 millionCommunication tower collisions 6.5 millionElectrical line electrocution – 5.4 millionOil Pits – 750000Wind Turbines – 174000US Fish and Wildlife: “Threats to Birds: Migratory Birds Mortality“https://www.fws.gov/birds/bird-enthusiasts/threats-to-birds.php”
Your information is old. And so are the prices quoted in this article. Current costs are far below what this article claims.In the US unsubsidized wind energy now costs 3-4 cents/kWh. NextEra the second largest utility in the US expects to see unsubsidized wind prices of 2-3 cents/kWh and 3-4 cents/kWh for solar in 2020+. By comparison the average fuel cost for coal last year was 3.8 cents per kWh. The cost of solar and wind falls 5-20{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} every single year and will continue to see sharp drops in cost for at least another decade. The cost of solar fell 22{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} in 2016 alone.Unsubsidized wind power in Brazil at 2.0 cents / kWh“Wind Power Cheaper Than Ever in Brazil Almost as Low as Mexico”https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-04/wind-power-cheaper-than-ever-in-brazil-almost-as-low-as-mexico=====Unsubsidized wind power in Canada at 2.5 cents / kWh“Alberta’s Renewable Electricity Program attracts lowest renewable pricing in Canada”https://www.aeso.ca/assets/Uploads/REP-Infographic.pdf====Solar power for Austin TX for 2.5 cents/kWh:Austin Energy solar PPA could be lowest-priced in US”” analysts say””https://www.utilitydive.com/news/austin-energy-solar-ppa-could-be-lowest-priced-in-us-analysts-say/513453/=====Unsubsidized solar and wind are below 2 cents / kWh in Mexico:“Mexico’s power auction pre-selects 16 bids with average price of $20.57/MWh and 2.56 GW of combined capacity”https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/11/16/mexicos-power-auction-pre-selects-16-bids-with-average-price-of-20-57mwh-and-2-56-gw-of-combined-capacity/=====“Chilean solar cost down 26{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12}”””” as important as Saudi Arabia at 1.79¢/kWh”https://electrek.co/2017/11/08/chilean-solar-down-26-as-important-as-saudi-arabia-at-1-79¢-kwh/”””””””
Of course. ‘Renewables’ are of no use for utility-grade power. They are in fact unethical to propose/construct for such — a sad example… https://tinyurl.com/y83g6htx And polluting from birth to death: http://tinyurl.com/ycg32mbthttps://mobile.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/world/asia/chinese-protesters-accuse-solar-panel-plant-of-pollution.html?refererhttps://asiancorrespondent.com/2011/05/green-deaths-the-forgotten-dangers-of-solar-panels/#f7OIyj15lLhWWbp4.97https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/9209-The-bottleneck-of-a-low-carbon-futurehttps://tinyurl.com/n3frxms…just a sample of ‘renewable’ reality.–Dr. A. Cannara650 400 3071
I read earlier that China is increasing nat gas burners as opposed to both nukes and coal. They LOVE nukes but to build safely, costs up the crack. They are alos, pushing now for fracking as an alternative to US gas (finally!) Money Money Money!
I read earlier that China is increasing nat gas burners as opposed to both nukes and coal. They LOVE nukes but to build safely costs up the crack. They are alos pushing now for fracking as an alternative to US gas (finally!)Money Money Money!
Stephan, the costs you reference as unsubsidised are, in fact, subsidised. If some tax breaks has been added back into the reported price, the derisking that the tax break and the PPA itself provides is still there, pushing cost of money to unsustainably low levels. This can easily halve the cost of these up-front-heavy investments. Some subsidies are usually hidden, such as grid connection and land. Especially grid connection is kindof expensive for solar and wind in relation to average output, due to low capacity factors. Also, such record PPAs are typically at best projected future costs, as the PPAs are new, with plants that won’t need to be commissioned for a number of years, banking on future cost reductions. And there’s considerable risk that the projects won’t be completed as the bids have been made by market-share grabbing companies that have no idea how to actually profit from them. They are using up lender and investor money. You claim that the cost of solar fell 22% in 2016 alone. This is unlikely as a global statistic, since such cost reductions according to Swanson’s law are associated with a doubling of cumulative volume which nowadays take 2.5 years to be had. Wind only grows by 11% year-over-year now, and falling, so wind cost reductions will come slow in the coming years.
Stephan the costs you reference as unsubsidised are in fact subsidised. If some tax breaks has been added back into the reported price the derisking that the tax break and the PPA itself provides is still there pushing cost of money to unsustainably low levels. This can easily halve the cost of these up-front-heavy investments. Some subsidies are usually hidden such as grid connection and land. Especially grid connection is kindof expensive for solar and wind in relation to average output due to low capacity factors.Also such record PPAs are typically at best projected future costs as the PPAs are new with plants that won’t need to be commissioned for a number of years banking on future cost reductions. And there’s considerable risk that the projects won’t be completed as the bids have been made by market-share grabbing companies that have no idea how to actually profit from them. They are using up lender and investor money.You claim that the cost of solar fell 22{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} in 2016 alone. This is unlikely as a global statistic since such cost reductions according to Swanson’s law are associated with a doubling of cumulative volume which nowadays take 2.5 years to be had. Wind only grows by 11{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} year-over-year now and falling so wind cost reductions will come slow in the coming years.
Waiting to see what design works best before leaping in with really mass production ala France in the 1980’s.
Yup but its seems only windmills murder protected bats and raptors. You kill an eagle – most places that comes with many thousands in fines and jail sentences unless you are a wind company that paid a corrupt politician beaucoup cash for an exemption.
Waiting to see what design works best before leaping in with really mass production ala France in the 1980’s.
Yup but its seems only windmills murder protected bats and raptors. You kill an eagle – most places that comes with many thousands in fines and jail sentences unless you are a wind company that paid a corrupt politician beaucoup cash for an exemption.
Obviously PWR-s work just as well or better than they did in the 80 for France. Plus France STARTED THINKING about nuclear power in 1973 and by 1985 their electricity procution was already around 75%. Meanwhile China started BUILDING a number of CPR1000 reactors. Yet now they’re still below 5%. Plus nothing matured in this time. Fast and molten salt breeders are still nowhere. All they really have available are EPR and CPR variants. I see little reason for optimism.
Obviously PWR-s work just as well or better than they did in the 80 for France. Plus France STARTED THINKING about nuclear power in 1973 and by 1985 their electricity procution was already around 75{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12}.Meanwhile China started BUILDING a number of CPR1000 reactors. Yet now they’re still below 5{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12}.Plus nothing matured in this time. Fast and molten salt breeders are still nowhere. All they really have available are EPR and CPR variants.I see little reason for optimism.
China simply has the most robust industry. Russia actually is not far behind. Look at the UAE. Russia is building more plants overseas than any country, China included. Bangladesh just broke ground with Russian help on their two VVER-1200 reactors! S. Arabia is looking to build 8 possibly 16 reactors. While over investments is down the last few years, there is no reason to think it won’t pick up.
I’m not amused either: they can build a lot more. They shouldn’t cut the rate but increase the build rate. There is no reason not to start a new nuclear plant every 2 weeks. This requires the proper planning in 2 areas (and logical investment to base it on): 1. Component manufacturing (RPVs, Pumps, etc, all “N-stamped”). 2. Human resources: doubling up at existing plants for operator training, which they do now but they can do better, and expanding even further their safety “regime” of training regulators and safety engineers. China has the lowest proportion of safety engineers per nuclear plant in the world and this has to change. Ok…it IS changing and they are getting better but it needs to be doubled and trippled. The goal of 24 new nukes a year is achievable. They only have to take their long range planning (75% of all generation in China by the end of this Century should be nuclear according to their ministry of energy) and apply the building blocks more vigorously.
China simply has the most robust industry. Russia actually is not far behind. Look at the UAE. Russia is building more plants overseas than any country China included. Bangladesh just broke ground with Russian help on their two VVER-1200 reactors! S. Arabia is looking to build 8 possibly 16 reactors. While over investments is down the last few years there is no reason to think it won’t pick up.
I’m not amused either: they can build a lot more. They shouldn’t cut the rate but increase the build rate. There is no reason not to start a new nuclear plant every 2 weeks. This requires the proper planning in 2 areas (and logical investment to base it on):1. Component manufacturing (RPVs Pumps etc all N-stamped””).2. Human resources: doubling up at existing plants for operator training”” which they do now but they can do better”” and expanding even further their safety “”””regime”””” of training regulators and safety engineers. China has the lowest proportion of safety engineers per nuclear plant in the world and this has to change. Ok…it IS changing and they are getting better but it needs to be doubled and trippled.The goal of 24 new nukes a year is achievable. They only have to take their long range planning (75{22800fc54956079738b58e74e4dcd846757aa319aad70fcf90c97a58f3119a12} of all generation in China by the end of this Century should be nuclear according to their ministry of energy) and apply the building blocks more vigorously.”””
China simply has the most robust industry. Russia actually is not far behind. Look at the UAE. Russia is building more plants overseas than any country, China included. Bangladesh just broke ground with Russian help on their two VVER-1200 reactors! S. Arabia is looking to build 8 possibly 16 reactors. While over investments is down the last few years, there is no reason to think it won’t pick up.
I’m not amused either: they can build a lot more. They shouldn’t cut the rate but increase the build rate. There is no reason not to start a new nuclear plant every 2 weeks. This requires the proper planning in 2 areas (and logical investment to base it on):
1. Component manufacturing (RPVs, Pumps, etc, all “N-stamped”).
2. Human resources: doubling up at existing plants for operator training, which they do now but they can do better, and expanding even further their safety “regime” of training regulators and safety engineers. China has the lowest proportion of safety engineers per nuclear plant in the world and this has to change. Ok…it IS changing and they are getting better but it needs to be doubled and trippled.
The goal of 24 new nukes a year is achievable. They only have to take their long range planning (75% of all generation in China by the end of this Century should be nuclear according to their ministry of energy) and apply the building blocks more vigorously.
Obviously PWR-s work just as well or better than they did in the 80 for France. Plus France STARTED THINKING about nuclear power in 1973 and by 1985 their electricity procution was already around 75%.
Meanwhile China started BUILDING a number of CPR1000 reactors. Yet now they’re still below 5%.
Plus nothing matured in this time. Fast and molten salt breeders are still nowhere. All they really have available are EPR and CPR variants.
I see little reason for optimism.
Waiting to see what design works best before leaping in with really mass production ala France in the 1980’s.
Yup but its seems only windmills murder protected bats and raptors. You kill an eagle – most places that comes with many thousands in fines and jail sentences unless you are a wind company that paid a corrupt politician beaucoup cash for an exemption.
Stephan, the costs you reference as unsubsidised are, in fact, subsidised. If some tax breaks has been added back into the reported price, the derisking that the tax break and the PPA itself provides is still there, pushing cost of money to unsustainably low levels. This can easily halve the cost of these up-front-heavy investments. Some subsidies are usually hidden, such as grid connection and land. Especially grid connection is kindof expensive for solar and wind in relation to average output, due to low capacity factors.
Also, such record PPAs are typically at best projected future costs, as the PPAs are new, with plants that won’t need to be commissioned for a number of years, banking on future cost reductions. And there’s considerable risk that the projects won’t be completed as the bids have been made by market-share grabbing companies that have no idea how to actually profit from them. They are using up lender and investor money.
You claim that the cost of solar fell 22% in 2016 alone. This is unlikely as a global statistic, since such cost reductions according to Swanson’s law are associated with a doubling of cumulative volume which nowadays take 2.5 years to be had. Wind only grows by 11% year-over-year now, and falling, so wind cost reductions will come slow in the coming years.
I read earlier that China is increasing nat gas burners as opposed to both nukes and coal. They LOVE nukes but to build safely, costs up the crack. They are alos, pushing now for fracking as an alternative to US gas (finally!)
Money Money Money!
OMG, the robotic buildings-kill-birds response! We need buildings. We don’t need windmills, because they waste ~2000 tons of raw materiel for every initial MW-year. And all those materials are processed via fossil fuels — know how steel is made? And, the result of those millions of tons of wasted materials is, for example…
https://tinyurl.com/y88f57mz https://tinyurl.com/y9zhpe5r
And, the steel from just one 5MW top-line windmill can make the world’s largest nuclear reactor vessel capable of 1000 times the power, 24/7 for decades. Toss in the materials for a dozen more windmills and we have the entire nuclear plant serving >1,000,000 homes with clean energy, 24/7 for decades…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zc7rRPrA7rg
A typical nuclear plant makes juice for 2.7-3.6 cents per kWHr, and can do things no renewable’ can — run every day, and more…
“Planned Maintenance at Diablo Canyon Unit 2 Delayed to Meet State Energy
Needs During Heat Wave” 9 Sep. 2015, CAISO: “Requests Both Units Operate at Full
Power”. http://tinyurl.com/zha8dba
Ask a wind/solar ‘farm’ to operate when there’s no sun/wind, eh? ;]
It seems this site omits links. So much for factual discussion. ;]
Yes, wind turbines kill birds, but you’ve been misled about how serious the problem is, here are some things that kill more birds:
Cats – 400 million
Buildings – 303 million
Cars – 200 million
Poison – 72 million
Electrical line collisions – 25 million
Communication tower collisions 6.5 million
Electrical line electrocution – 5.4 million
Oil Pits – 750,000
Wind Turbines – 174,000
US Fish and Wildlife: “Threats to Birds: Migratory Birds Mortality“
https://www.fws.gov/birds/bird-enthusiasts/threats-to-birds.php
Your information is old. And so are the prices quoted in this article. Current costs are far below what this article claims.
In the US, unsubsidized wind energy now costs 3-4 cents/kWh. NextEra, the second largest utility in the US, expects to see unsubsidized wind prices of 2-3 cents/kWh and 3-4 cents/kWh for solar in 2020+. By comparison the average fuel cost for coal last year was 3.8 cents per kWh.
The cost of solar and wind falls 5-20% every single year, and will continue to see sharp drops in cost for at least another decade. The cost of solar fell 22% in 2016 alone.
Unsubsidized wind power in Brazil at 2.0 cents / kWh
“Wind Power Cheaper Than Ever in Brazil, Almost as Low as Mexico”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-04/wind-power-cheaper-than-ever-in-brazil-almost-as-low-as-mexico
=====
Unsubsidized wind power in Canada at 2.5 cents / kWh
“Alberta’s Renewable Electricity Program attracts lowest renewable pricing in Canada”
https://www.aeso.ca/assets/Uploads/REP-Infographic.pdf
====
Solar power for Austin, TX for 2.5 cents/kWh:
“Austin Energy solar PPA could be lowest-priced in US, analysts say”
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/austin-energy-solar-ppa-could-be-lowest-priced-in-us-analysts-say/513453/
=====
Unsubsidized solar and wind are below 2 cents / kWh in Mexico:
“Mexico’s power auction pre-selects 16 bids with average price of $20.57/MWh and 2.56 GW of combined capacity”
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/11/16/mexicos-power-auction-pre-selects-16-bids-with-average-price-of-20-57mwh-and-2-56-gw-of-combined-capacity/
=====
“Chilean solar cost down 26%, as important as Saudi Arabia at 1.79¢/kWh”
https://electrek.co/2017/11/08/chilean-solar-down-26-as-important-as-saudi-arabia-at-1-79¢-kwh/
Of course. ‘Renewables’ are of no use for utility-grade power. They are, in fact, unethical to propose/construct for such — a sad example… https://tinyurl.com/y83g6htx
And polluting from birth to death: http://tinyurl.com/ycg32mbt
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/world/asia/chinese-protesters-accuse-solar-panel-plant-of-pollution.html?referer
https://asiancorrespondent.com/2011/05/green-deaths-the-forgotten-dangers-of-solar-panels/#f7OIyj15lLhWWbp4.97
https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/9209-The-bottleneck-of-a-low-carbon-future
https://tinyurl.com/n3frxms
…just a sample of ‘renewable’ reality.
—
Dr. A. Cannara
650 400 3071
It looks like only China can do nuclear power properly these days. Still I’m not amused by their deployment rate.
China’s still overwhelmingly coal powered and nuclear power only accounts for a measly 2% of electricity production.