Doubling or tripling the pace of robotics and AI should not cause mass unemployment

Productivity growth (a.k.a. “automation”) has been very weak for the last decade, averaging just over 1.0 percent annually.

The Congressional Budget Office is only forecasting 1.8% per year productivity growth.

Productivity growth averaged 3.0% annually from 1947 to 1973 which had low unemployment and rapid wage growth.

Tripling the robots in manufacturing would be the USA catching up to South Korea in automation. Robot sales in the United States are continuing to increase between 2017 and 2020 by at least 15% on average per year. At this pace it would take about 10 years for the USA to catch up to current South Korean automation levels.

Replacing the truck, ride-sharing and other drivers with self-driving cars seems like it will be a 10-20 year transition. This will impact ten million jobs in the USA. This shift is something that drivers and society need to find second jobs and other training now. The shift from driving jobs will start happening in a major way.

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