A recent study of about 4000 ‘super-elderly’ people in Italy, all aged 105 and older predicts that the chance of death reaches a peak of 50% each year. Yearly risk of death climbs from
* 10% chance of someone age 85 not dying by the time they are 86
* 15% chance of someone age 90 not dying by the time they are 91
* 20% chance of someone age 95 not dying by the time they are 96
* 30% chance of someone age 100 not dying by the time they are 101
Then it stays at 50% chance of death for someone aged 105 to reach another year.
The risk of annual death levels off after age 105, creating a ‘mortality plateau’. At that point, the researchers say, the odds of someone dying from one birthday to the next are roughly 50:50 and stay there.
The world is home to around 500,000 people aged 100 and up — a number that’s predicted to nearly double with each coming decade. About 100,000 of 500,000 who are 100 should reach 105. In 30 years there should be 1 million who reach 105. Then the expectation would be that one would reach 125.
In 2015, 8.5% of people worldwide (617 million) were aged 65 and over. This is projected to jump to nearly 17 percent of the world’s population by 2050 (1.6 billion). If medicine and health improved to reduce mortality from age 65 to 105, where most people reached age 105 but still hit the 50% over 105 plateau, then around 2080 someone would be expected to live to 135.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
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