In 2013, McKinsey lists 12 disruptive technologies that would have multi-trillion economic impact from 2013 to 2025. Nextbigfuture compared this to expected GDP growth of nations. It is now five years down the line and we can see more about what the GDP growth will likely be and how those technologies are doing.
Country GDP 2013 GDP 2018 GDPe 2023 GDPe 2025 Growth 2013-2025 China 9.6 trillion 14.1 T 21.6 T 24.9 T 15.3 T USA 16.7 trillion 20.4 T 24.5 T 25.9 T 9.2 T India 1.9 trillion 2.8 T 4.7 T 5.6 T 3.7 T Germany 3.7 trillion 4.2 T 5.3 T 5.7 T 2.0 T Japan 5.2 trillion 5.2 T 6.0 T 6.4 T 1.4 T South Korea 1.3 trillion 1.7 T 2.2 T 2.4 T 1.1 T Indonesia 0.9 trillion 1.1 T 1.6 T 1.8 T 0.9 T Brazil 2.5 trillion 2.1 T 2.7 T 2.9 T 0.4 T
Brazil and Japan have been flat or lost GDP when adjusted for currency over the last five years. Although the IMF has again projected growth for Brazil and Japan, both countries have been going from positive to negative as currency fluctuates.
This was the range of GDP growth estimated by Nextbigfuture in 2013 :
1. China $10-20 trillion
2. United States 4-7 trillion
3. India $2-4 trillion
4. Indonesia $1.5-2.5 trillion
5. Brazil $1-2 trillion
6. Japan $1-2 trillion
The McKinsey Global Institute identified 12 technologies that could drive truly massive economic transformations and disruptions in the coming years. Applications of the 12 technologies discussed in the report could have a potential economic impact between $14 trillion and $33 trillion a year in 2025. Technologies detailed in the report have been gestating for years and are familiar.
1. Mobile Internet $3.7-10.5 trillion
2. Automation of knowledge work $5.2-6.7 trillion
3. Internet of things $2.7-6.2 trillion
4. Cloud $1.7-6.2 trillion
5. Advanced robotics $1.7-4.5 trillion
6. Autonomous or near-autonomous cars $0.2-1.9 trillion
7. Next-generation genomics $0.7-1.6 trillion
A review in 2018 is that most of these are heading to the high end of the estimated impact. The overall GDP impact is less positive since there is quite a lot impact of technology is taking existing business from other technology. Cloud computing is transformation of data centers and IT.
McKinsey’s 2013 missed the blockchain and fintech wave. Blockchain and Fintech will likely be several trillion in impact by 2025.
There is overlap and over counting with the various technologies.
Mobile internet measured by ecommerce should be about $7 trillion in 2024 and $9-10 trillion 2025.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.