Future US versus China Navy Sizes

The US Navy’s newest 30-year shipbuilding plan gets to 308 ships by 2020, a year faster than the previous administration’s goal of 2021. The target is 326 ships by the end 2023. The US Navy will not reach the goal of 355 ships until the 2050s.

The US Navy will refurbish six of the older cruisers. This will mean 17 cruisers will go past their 35-year service life. The Navy is currently upgrading its newest 11 cruisers through a phased modernization plan.

China plans to get to a 351 ship Navy by 2020.

The DOD expects China to build five more aircraft carriers by 2033. This will go along with the old Ukrainian carrier that is currently in operation.

China is also working on a new Type 055 cruiser equipped with land-attack missiles, lasers and rail-gun weapons.

By the mid-2020s, China likely will build the Type 093B guided-missile nuclear attack submarine. This new SHANG-class variant would enhance the PLAN’s anti-surface warfare capability and could also provide a more clandestine land-attack option.

The Type 093 is estimated to be roughly 7,000 t displacement when submerged, 110 metres (360 ft) long with a beam of 11 metres (36 ft). Commercial imagery suggests the Type 093G is longer. The sonar suite includes H/SQC-207 flank-mounted sonar. The boat may also use a seven-blade asymmetric propeller.

The Type 095 is a class of third generation nuclear-powered attack submarines for the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) of China. The first unit entered service in November 2017 and there are two more under construction out of 5 units planned as of April 2018.

It was anticipated that Type 095 submarines have a substantially reduced acoustic signature, within an improved hull type. Compared to the Type 093, the Type 095 will have a more advanced nuclear reactor, VLS tubes and greater number of advanced sensors such as new active/passive flank array sonar and low and high frequency towed sonar array. Additionally, it is also speculated that Type 095 submarines may act as a potential undersea escort for any future PLAN aircraft carrier task forces.

China’s Navy will have a larger number of ships and submarines than the US Navy in 2030.

In 2017, CNAS forecasted that China would have 500 ships and those ships would mostly be comparable to US technology levels.

By 2030, many forecasts suggest that China will be quantitatively on par with the United States, while others suggest Beijing may even have a significantly larger naval order of battle than the United States.

51 thoughts on “Future US versus China Navy Sizes”

  1. April, 2015, of RAND’S report, “China can now hold the U.S. Navy’s surface fleet at risk at significant ranges from the mainland”. Two years later, in March, 2017, the Pentagon did the numbers, “The PLAN is the largest navy in Asia, with more than 300 surface ships, submarines, amphibious ships, and patrol craft.” In a 2018 signal to defense professionals, China launched fifteen new warships in seven months–including two missile cruisers, the most powerful surface combatants afloat–and began work on four nuclear submarines simultaneously in the world’s largest marine factory. By 2020, says the Navy,[1] the PLAN will have 342 deployable warships, far more than the USN can support in the area.  [1] Chinese Naval Expansion Hits High Gear: China’s Navy Acquires 15 Warships in 7 Months https://glblgeopolitics.wordpress.com/2018/07/19/chinese-naval-expansion-hits-high-gear-chinas-navy-acquires-15-warships-in-7-months/

  2. April 2015 of RAND’S report “China can now hold the U.S. Navy’s surface fleet at risk at significant ranges from the mainland”. Two years later in March 2017 the Pentagon did the numbers “The PLAN is the largest navy in Asia with more than 300 surface ships submarines amphibious ships and patrol craft.” In a 2018 signal to defense professionals China launched fifteen new warships in seven months–including two missile cruisers the most powerful surface combatants afloat–and began work on four nuclear submarines simultaneously in the world’s largest marine factory. By 2020 says the Navy[1] the PLAN will have 342 deployable warships far more than the USN can support in the area.[1] Chinese Naval Expansion Hits High Gear: China’s Navy Acquires 15 Warships in 7 Months https://glblgeopolitics.wordpress.com/2018/07/19/chinese-naval-expansion-hits-high-gear-chinas-navy-acquires-15-warships-in-7-months/

  3. Trump supporters have a signature stupidity in their prose and dialogue. If you want to win, well in the game of life there is no win. US has consistently traded off an egalitarian and socially motile environment for one exceedingly favoring inequality as time goes on while more consistently keeping up or even enlarging military power. Beefing up your military or making your nations sole priority it’s protection while ignoring internal protections is bound to end up badly, a broke dystopia with a lot of armed guards with fancy weaponry, all in defense in competing with someone else who may end up the same way. No win. Easiest bet is to try to acquiesce to a multi-polar world while trying to use global economics to the best of a peace-promoting ability to potentially shift diplomatic discussion in your favor.

  4. US is the most powerful nation in the world, it cannot let anyone surpass in any aspect of its military, Trump must start another star war like arm race like Ronald Reagan against Russia and China to bankrupt them. Trump must ask the Congress to double the defence spending right away.

  5. Trump supporters have a signature stupidity in their prose and dialogue.If you want to win well in the game of life there is no win. US has consistently traded off an egalitarian and socially motile environment for one exceedingly favoring inequality as time goes on while more consistently keeping up or even enlarging military power. Beefing up your military or making your nations sole priority it’s protection while ignoring internal protections is bound to end up badly a broke dystopia with a lot of armed guards with fancy weaponry all in defense in competing with someone else who may end up the same way. No win. Easiest bet is to try to acquiesce to a multi-polar world while trying to use global economics to the best of a peace-promoting ability to potentially shift diplomatic discussion in your favor.

  6. US is the most powerful nation in the world it cannot let anyone surpass in any aspect of its military Trump must start another star war like arm race like Ronald Reagan against Russia and China to bankrupt them. Trump must ask the Congress to double the defence spending right away.

  7. You might have a point there, Teo. After all, when we gut off mental health services to you the outcome was not pretty.

  8. Trump supporters have a signature stupidity in their prose and dialogue.” Ah yes, the post from the TDS guy to make him feel all superior and everything.

  9. Wow! India and Japan has no bearing in this? Especially since it will be they — not the US — whose navies will be fighting China in the upcoming big fight in the western Pac & Indian Ocean?

  10. Trump must start another star war like arm race like Ronald Reagan against Russia and China to bankrupt them.” You assume that: 1. We *would* win that. Given other possible issues, our economy might possibly ‘break’ first. Or… 2. That China would even take the bait. (“Yeah, you go ahead and do that, we’ll just continue to follow our own plans, and not challenge you on your strengths.”) China doesn’t have the same kind of reactive paranoia that the Soviets did.

  11. The Chinese don’t have a strong naval tradition to draw on. They don’t have the same naval alliances the US has. And they don’t have naval bases spread across the world. By 2050 they might match us by tonnage but not ability. And they won’t be able to match alliances and experience.

  12. You might have a point there Teo. After all when we gut off mental health services to you the outcome was not pretty.

  13. Trump supporters have a signature stupidity in their prose and dialogue.””Ah yes”””” the post from the TDS guy to make him feel all superior and everything.”””

  14. Wow! India and Japan has no bearing in this? Especially since it will be they — not the US — whose navies will be fighting China in the upcoming big fight in the western Pac & Indian Ocean?

  15. Trump must start another star war like arm race like Ronald Reagan against Russia and China to bankrupt them.””You assume that:1. We *would* win that. Given other possible issues”””” our economy might possibly ‘break’ first. Or…2. That China would even take the bait. (“”””Yeah”” you go ahead and do that we’ll just continue to follow our own plans”” and not challenge you on your strengths.””””) China doesn’t have the same kind of reactive paranoia that the Soviets did.”””

  16. The Chinese don’t have a strong naval tradition to draw on. They don’t have the same naval alliances the US has. And they don’t have naval bases spread across the world. By 2050 they might match us by tonnage but not ability. And they won’t be able to match alliances and experience.

  17. Beefing up your military or making your nations sole priority it’s protection while ignoring internal protections…” I think this means that the money for an extra squadron of F35s should be spent making the border wall. Maybe one with Mexico. Definitely one with California.

  18. Beefing up your military or making your nations sole priority it’s protection while ignoring internal protections…””I think this means that the money for an extra squadron of F35s should be spent making the border wall. Maybe one with Mexico. Definitely one with California.”””

  19. “Beefing up your military or making your nations sole priority it’s protection while ignoring internal protections…”

    I think this means that the money for an extra squadron of F35s should be spent making the border wall. Maybe one with Mexico. Definitely one with California.

  20. Wow! India and Japan has no bearing in this? Especially since it will be they — not the US — whose navies will be fighting China in the upcoming big fight in the western Pac & Indian Ocean?

  21. “Trump must start another star war like arm race like Ronald Reagan against Russia and China to bankrupt them.”

    You assume that:

    1. We *would* win that. Given other possible issues, our economy might possibly ‘break’ first. Or…

    2. That China would even take the bait. (“Yeah, you go ahead and do that, we’ll just continue to follow our own plans, and not challenge you on your strengths.”) China doesn’t have the same kind of reactive paranoia that the Soviets did.

  22. The Chinese don’t have a strong naval tradition to draw on. They don’t have the same naval alliances the US has. And they don’t have naval bases spread across the world. By 2050 they might match us by tonnage but not ability. And they won’t be able to match alliances and experience.

  23. Trump supporters have a signature stupidity in their prose and dialogue.
    If you want to win, well in the game of life there is no win. US has consistently traded off an egalitarian and socially motile environment for one exceedingly favoring inequality as time goes on while more consistently keeping up or even enlarging military power. Beefing up your military or making your nations sole priority it’s protection while ignoring internal protections is bound to end up badly, a broke dystopia with a lot of armed guards with fancy weaponry, all in defense in competing with someone else who may end up the same way. No win. Easiest bet is to try to acquiesce to a multi-polar world while trying to use global economics to the best of a peace-promoting ability to potentially shift diplomatic discussion in your favor.

  24. US is the most powerful nation in the world, it cannot let anyone surpass in any aspect of its military, Trump must start another star war like arm race like Ronald Reagan against Russia and China to bankrupt them. Trump must ask the Congress to double the defence spending right away.

  25. April, 2015, of RAND’S report, “China can now hold the U.S. Navy’s surface fleet at risk at significant ranges from the mainland”. Two years later, in March, 2017, the Pentagon did the numbers, “The PLAN is the largest navy in Asia, with more than 300 surface ships, submarines, amphibious ships, and patrol craft.” In a 2018 signal to defense professionals, China launched fifteen new warships in seven months–including two missile cruisers, the most powerful surface combatants afloat–and began work on four nuclear submarines simultaneously in the world’s largest marine factory. By 2020, says the Navy,[1] the PLAN will have 342 deployable warships, far more than the USN can support in the area.


    [1] Chinese Naval Expansion Hits High Gear: China’s Navy Acquires 15 Warships in 7 Months
    https://glblgeopolitics.wordpress.com/2018/07/19/chinese-naval-expansion-hits-high-gear-chinas-navy-acquires-15-warships-in-7-months/

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