Anti-establishment politics trend theory ignores the muslim aspect

Ian Bremmer, President of the Eurasian Group presents his theory that there has been a global backlash against the establishment, immigration and globalization as a global trend. He also indicates four drivers of the movement.

Bremmer does not mention the muslim aspect and does not compare each of the drivers to historical levels and does not look at the statistical amounts of each driver by country.

Examples of the global trend against the establishment

* The Brexit referendum was before the U.S. presidential election.
* Germany has the rise of the Alternatives for Deutschland, an actively Euro-skeptic party for the first time since World War II
* Italian elections threw out all of the establishment parties and instead it’s the Five Star Movement and the League, again Euro-skeptic, anti-immigration, populist political forces.

Bremmer claims this is unusual. Bremmers theory is that the middle and working class are not advancing economically and resent the newcomers.

Anti-immigration

There is a lot of anti-immigration. Bremmer claims demographics have changed in the United States, in Canada and in Europe over the past decades and a lot of people do not like the change.

Canada and Australia are leaders in immigration but the anti-immigration movements are not that strong in those countries.

Italy only has about 8% of the population as foreign-born.

Singapore is a developed city-country with high levels of immigration but there appears to be very little anti-immigration activity. Singapore started with large numbers of Southeast Asian muslims. Muslims are 60% of Malaysia. Singapore was part of Malaysia. Singapore has been stable with about 15% malaysian population from 1965 to today.

There have historically been higher levels of immigration and higher percentages of foreign-born people in the US than current levels.

Military

A third piece has been the military. The US has sent a lot of the lower classes to fight in wars. There has been monetary cost but also injuries and lives losts by many families. Many veterans and their families were angry and votes for Bernie Sanders or for Donald Trump.

However, Bremmer making the case that is true for the allies is a stretch. Canada and European allies did not send troops to all of the US conflicts and did not have nearly the level of troops involved or the injuries.

There is a list of the casualties suffered by Canada as an example.

Canada has had about 160 dead and 600 or so wounded in the conflicts in the last 20 years and it has nearly all been in Afghanistan.

Technology and Social Media

Technology today is increasingly driving people apart. Bremmer claims that people are getting belief reinforcing news from social media and the internet.

History and other theories

Britain has had as many people with military involvement as the US as has had. Between 2007 and 2015, the U.K. was the only advanced country to see wages shrink while the overall economy grew.

Nextbigfuture thinks Bremmer tip-toed around the muslim religion and race aspects.

The number of refugees admitted to the USA fell in 2018, especially muslim refugees

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